Blaise Pascal: Umugani w'Uruziga rwa Ruleti
Umuhanga mu mibare akunze kwitirirwa uruziga, uwariko agerageza kwubaka ikindi kintu.
Pascal (1623–1662) yageragezaga ibikoresho vyo kugenda ubutagarukira mu myaka ya 1650. Uruziga ruzunguruka hafi ataco rukwegana yitirirwa rushobora kuba ari sekuru wa rotor ya ruleti; ukwo kumwitirira ni ukw'imigenzo aho kuba ukwanditswe.
Umuhanga mu mibare
Blaise Pascal yubatse imashini yo guharura afise imyaka cumi n'icenda, yerekana ivyavuyemwo mu bumenyi bw'ishusho akiri umuyabaga, akora ibikorwa vy'ishimikiro ku vyerekeye umukandara w'umuyaga n'ahatari ikintu, maze mu 1654, mu mabaruwa yandikirana na Pierre de Fermat, atorera inyishu “ingorane y'amanota”: ukuntu bogabura neza amahera yatezwe mu mukino w'amahirwe uhagaritswe. Inyishu yabo, kugabura hakurikijwe ugushobokaimibareUgushobokaUgushoboka kw'ivyavuyemwo, kuva kuri 0 gushika kuri 1 canke 0% gushika 100%. Inomero imwe: 1/37 = 2,70%.Soma vyose → umukinyi wese yari afise ko gutsinda iyo umukino ubandanya, ni yo nkomoko y'agaciro kitezweimibareAgaciro kitezweIvyavuyemwo vy'impuzandengo kuri buri tego mu gihe kirekire. −1/37 c'amahera y'itego kuri buri tego risanzwe ry'i Buraya.Soma vyose →. Iharura ryose rya EV kuri uru rubuga rikomoka kuri ayo mabaruwa.
Vyoba vyarabayeho imashini ya ruleti ya Blaise Pascal?
Hagati mu myaka ya 1650 Pascal yakora ku mashini yo kugenda ubutagarukira kandi bivugwa ko yubatse uruziga ruringaniye neza rwazunguruka umwanya muremure ataco rukwegana cane. Inkuru ivuga ko urwo ruziga rwabaye rotoribikoreshoRotorIgice c'uruziga kizunguruka gifise utuzu.Soma vyose → ya ruleti isubirwamwo mu bitabu vyinshi vya kahise kandi ntiyanditswe mu nyandiko n'imwe y'intango. Birashoboka ko abakoresha amakazino mu migi y'amazi akiza mu kinjana ca 18 bakoresha iryo zina mu kwamamaza. Si ikintu Ikibanza c'Ubushakashatsi coshobora kwemera gishingiye ku vyemezo.
Ugushoboka, mu majambo yiwe no mu yacu
Amabaruwa yo mu 1654 ntavuga ruleti, kuko itari bwabeho. Arabaza: abakinyi babiri bakeneye amanota atatu ngo batware amahera; bahagarara kuri 2–1; amahera akwiye kugaburwa gute? Inyishu ya Pascal ikoresha ivyo twokwita ubu ivyitezwe bishingiye ku bimenyekanye n'iciyumviro gisubiramwo kimanuka mu giti c'inzira zose umukino woshobora gukurikira. Huygens yasomye ayo mabaruwa maze mu 1657 asohora igitabu ca mbere co kwigishirizamwo ivyitezwe. Ijambo “expectation” ni iryiwe.
Pascal na Fermat batorera inyishu ingorane y'amanota: agaciro kitezwe nk'igiciro gikwiye c'ikibanza umukinyi arimwo.
Huygens, De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae: inyandiko ya mbere yacapuwe ku vyitezwe.
Jakob Bernoulli, Ars Conjectandi: itegeko ry'ibitigiri vyinshi.
Ruleti idondorwa i Paris. Iriha ryose ni 36/n − 1: EV = −1/37 (canke −2/38).
Igerageza rya chi-square rya Pearson, ryerekanwa ku kuzunguruka kwa ruleti.
Ivyo vyose biri hejuru, kuri uru rubuga, muri porogaramu yo kuraba imbuga.
Itego rya Pascal
Iciyumviro ca Pascal kizwi cane ku gutega ntikivuga ruleti ahubwo kivuga Imana: “itego” riri muri Pensées ribona ukwemera nk'itego rifise iriha ritagira iherezo. Ni iciyumviro c'agaciro kitezwe, kandi ni ubwa mbere umuntu akoresheje inyigisho yo gufata ingingo kugira ngo ashigikire ikintu. Abakinyi ba ruleti bitwaza Pascal ku vy'uruziga baritwaza Pascal atari we; uwuhambaye ni uwerekanye ukuntu bashinga igiciro c'itego.
Igitangaje
Naho Pascal yoba yarubatse canke atubatse uruziga rwa mbere rwa ruleti, umukino werekana neza igikorwa ciwe nyakuri: igikoresho kivuye ku muntu yerekanye ko udashobora kuronka ikintu ku busa (ukugenda ubutagarukira kuranka; ivyitezwe ntibihinduka), gikoreshwa mu kwereka ico kintu nyene abakinyi imiliyoni nkeya ku mwaka.
Ibibazo
Yagendera abatezi b'i Paris mu ntango y'imyaka ya 1650, ari na co catumye ingorane y'amanota imushikira biciye kuri Chevalier de Méré. Nta nyandiko yerekana ko yakinira amahera mu buryo bukomeye.
Kubera ko ari inkuru nziza kandi kubera ko abamamaza amakazino bo mu kinjana ca 19 bayikunda. Yisubiremwo ushizeko n'akajambo k'insobanuro.
Agakuru ko gutwenga
Yerekanye ko udashobora kuronka ikintu ku busa. Hanyuma umuntu yubaka kazino kuri ivyo.
Aho Twakuye
- Pascal, B. & Fermat, P. Correspondence on the problem of points.
- Huygens, C. De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae.
- Kavanagh, T. M. Dice, Cards, Wheels: A Different History of French Culture.