Ingendo yo gutega · Iyongerekana rihakana · iminota 9

Ingendo ya Martingale muri Ruleti

Ingendo ya Martingale kuri ruleti ikuba kabiri itego inyuma ya buri gihombo igasubira ku itego ry'intango inyuma y'itsinzi. Buri tsinzi igarura ibihombo vyose vyabanje hamwe n'igice kimwe c'intango. Iyi paji yerekana ico ivyo bikora ku mahera yo gukinisha, n'igituma bidashobora guhindura igihombo citezwe.

Inyishu ngufiNtibutsinda uruziga. Nk'ingendo yo gukuba kabiri kuri ruleti, Martingale itanga intsinzi ntoya nyinshi n'ibihombo binini rimwe na rimwe. Mu nzunguruka zingana gute zose, igihombo citezwe kiguma ari 2,70% y'amahera yose yateze, kandi kubera ko iyongerekana riteza amahera menshi, igihombo citezwe mu gihe co gukina kiruta ico gutega amahera angana, ntikiri munsi.

Uburyo bwa Martingale kuri ruleti bukora gute?

Utsinzwe, kuba kabiri. Utsinze, subira ku itego ry'intango. Ubwo ni bwo buryo bwose. Ufise itego ry'intango rya $10 n'urugero rw'ameza rwa $500, urukurikirane rurangira inyuma y'ibihombo bitandatu. Inkingi ya nyuma ni ugushoboka ko gushika kuri iyo ntambwe ku tego rya rimwe kuri rimwe, aho buri gihombo gifise ugushoboka kwa 19/37.

igihombo #itego rikurikiraivyashizwe mu ngorane vyosep(gushika)

0$10$10100,00%

1$20$3051,35%

2$40$7026,37%

3$80$15013,54%

4$160$3106,95%

5$320$6303,57%

6$640$1.2701,83%

7$1.280$2.5500,94%

Itego ry'intango $10, urugero rw'ameza $500. Inyuma y'ibihombo bitandatu, itego rikurikira ni $640, rirenze urugero: iyongerekana rirahomboka hatakajwe $630. Ugushoboka kw'ibihombo bitandatu bikurikirana ku nomero zitukura ni (19/37)^6 = 1,83%, nk'incuro imwe muri 55 vy'ibigeragezo.

Kurikira ubwo buryo

Igihombo gikuba kabiri amahera y'itego. Itsinzi igusubiza ku ntango.

amahera y'itego akurikira1ivyavuyemwo gushika ubu0inzunguruka0

Amahera y'itego n'ivyavuyemwo biharurwa mu bice vy'itego ry'intango.

Igihe co gukina gisa gute?

Intambwe ntoya zuzuka, hanyuma umwobo. Muri Martingale ya ruleti, buri rukurikirane rw'ugukuba kabiri rurangiye rwongerako itego rimwe ry'intango, nuko umurongo uduga buhoro buhoro. Urukurikirane rukubise ku rugero rwa $500 rusubiza $630 icarimwe: intambwe 63 muri izo.

Ibihe cumi vyo gukina na Martingale, intango $10, urugero $500ivyavuyemwo ugereranije n'intango

ibihe vyo gukina 1.000 × ukuzunguruka 500 · ibara ry'urwungu p10/p25/p75/p90, ubururu bwerurutse hagati, uturorero 83 tudasa · nyuza akamenyetso hejuru y'igishushanyo kugira ubone ibipimo ku kuzunguruka

p10 −$1.000
p25 −$1.000
hagati −$1.000
p75 +$930
p90 +$1.830

ibihe vyo gukina 1.000 × ukuzunguruka 500 · umurongo uhagaze ugarukira ku ijanisha rya 1–99 (impera −$1.000 gushika +$2.640) · ukuzunguruka 500 · intango $10 · rimwe kuri rimwe

Buri murongo ni igihe kimwe co gukina c'amatego ya rimwe kuri rimwe uhereye ku mahera yo gukinisha angana na $1.000. Ukuduga kurekure, ukumanuka gutunguranye.

Intambwe ntoya zuzuka, hanyuma umwobo uzisubiza zose icarimwe.

Igikoresho co kwigana

Buri gitunganywa gikora ibihe 2.000 vyo gukina c'amatego ya rimwe kuri rimwe uhereye ku mahera yo gukinisha angana na $1.000. Ivyavuyemwo vyihindura ako kanya.

Itego ry'intango

Urugero rw'ameza

Inzunguruka ku gihe c'ugukina

Ivyavuyemwo vy'ibihe vyo gukina · ibihe vyo gukina 2.000 · ukuzunguruka 100 · intango $10 · urugero $500igihombo ← | → inyungu

−$1.000$0+$650

shira akamenyetso ku murongo · imirongo itukura ni ibihe vyo gukina vyahombye, iyibisi ni ivyungutse, umurongo werurutse uri hagati ya $0

ibihe vyo gukina vyungutse

40,8%

ivyavuyemwo vya hagati

−$130

ivyavuyemwo vy'impuzandengo

−$66,44

iyongerekana ryasenyutse

59,3% by'ibihe vyo gukina

ijanisha rya 5

−$1.000

igabanuka rinini ryo hagati

−$650

Ibihe vyo gukina vyinshi birangira wungutse gato (40,8%), ico ni co gikwega abantu. Impuzandengo ni munsi ya zeru (−$66,44) kubera ko ibihe vyo gukina vyahombye bihomba cane: iyongerekana ryashitse ku rugero rw'ameza mu 59,3% by'ibihe vyo gukina. Umutezi atega amahera angana ya $10 mu nzunguruka nyene yitega guhomba nka $27.

Ukuntu urukurikirane rw'ibihombo ruza kenshi

Itego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ku ruziga rwa zeru imwe rihomba mu kuzunguruka 19 kuri 37. Umurongo wose werekana ugushoboka ko inzunguruka zikurikirana zingana gutyo zose zihomba, n'ivyo umukinyi wa Martingale, akuba kabiri inyuma y'igihombo cose, amaze guhomba gushika ico gihe.

Itego ry'intango

ibihombo bikurikirana	ugushoboka	nka 1 kuri	ivyahombye gushika ubu	itego rikurikira
1	51,4%	2	$1	$2
2	26,4%	4	$3	$4
3	13,5%	7	$7	$8
4	7,0%	14	$15	$16
5	3,6%	28	$31	$32
6	1,8%	55	$63	$64
7	0,94%	106	$127	$128
8	0,48%	207	$255	$256
9	0,25%	403	$511	$512
10	0,13%	784	$1.023	$1.024
11	0,065%	1527	$2.047	$2.048
12	0,034%	2974	$4.095	$4.096
13	0,017%	5792	$8.191	$8.192
14	0,0089%	11279	$16.383	$16.384
15	0,0046%	21965	$32.767	$32.768

Ugushoboka ni 19/37 gukubwe nako ubwako incuro imwe kuri buri gihombo, guharurwa kuva ku kuzunguruka kumwe kwagenywe. Igihe c'ugukina kirekire kirimwo inzunguruka nyinshi aho urukurikirane nk'urwo rushobora gutangurira, rero mu mugoroba umwe birashoboka cane kuruta ivyo umurongo umwe werekana.

Umurongo w'ibihombo cumi na bitanu uba nk'incuro imwe mu bigeragezo 22.000. Ivyo vyumvikana nk'ibitagira ingorane. Si ko biri, kubera ibintu bibiri. Buri kuzunguruka gutangura ikigeragezo gishasha, kandi umugoroba umwe ufise inzunguruka amajana. Kandi nta n'umwe ashika kuri cumi na bitanu: uhereye ku ntango ya $10, urugero rwa $500 ruhagarika ugukuba kabiri inyuma y'ibihombo bitandatu, biba nk'incuro imwe mu bigeragezo 55.

Kubera iki idashobora guhindura ugushoboka?

Agaciro kitezwe karateranywa. Nimba buri tego rimwe rimwe rifise ivyitezwe vya −2,70% y'amahera yaryo, rero urukurikirane urwo ari rwo rwose rw'amatego, n'aho amahera y'itego yohitwamwo gute, rufise ivyitezwe vya −2,70% y'amahera yose yateze. Uguhitamwo amahera y'itego gushobora kwishimikiza ivyavuyemwo vyahise; ntigushobora kwishimikiza ivy'ubukurikira.

E[Σ bᵢ·Xᵢ] = Σ bᵢ·E[Xᵢ] = −(1/37)·Σ bᵢ
bᵢ ihitwamwo imbere y'ukuzunguruka i; Xᵢ = ±1 itishimikiza bᵢ

Ivyiyumviro bitari vyo bikunze kuboneka

“Ukeneye gutsinda incuro imwe gusa kugira ugarure vyose.”

Ni ukuri mu iyongerekana rirangiye neza. Iyongerekana ritarangiye, kubera urugero rw'ameza canke amahera yawe yo gukinisha, ritakaza urukurikirane rwose, kandi urwo rukurikirane ni runini ku bw'ukuntu rwubatswe.

“Ufise amahera yo gukinisha ahagije, ntibishobora kunanirana.”

Urugero rw'ameza ruhagarika ugukuba kabiri kera cane imbere y'uko amahera yo gukinisha menshi ashira. Hatariho urugero, amahera akenewe yiyongera bimwe bihambaye mu gihe inyungu kuri buri muzingi iguma ari igice kimwe c'intango.

“Ibihombo bitandatu bikurikirana ntibishoboka namba.”

Ku nomero zitukura biba kuri 1,83% y'imirongo y'ukuzunguruka gatandatu. Mu gihe co gukina c'ukuzunguruka 200, akenshi uzobona nibura umurongo umwe w'ibihombo bitandatu.

Agakuru ko gutwenga

Intsinzi ntoya nyinshi, igihombo kinini kimwe kidakunze kuba. Kandi ingurane uyiriha ubwawe.

Insozero y'imibareUburyo bwa Martingale kuri ruleti buguranira ugushoboka kunini kw'inyungu ntoya n'ugushoboka gutoya kw'igihombo kinini. Ni nk'ubwishingizi bugurishwa ku buryo bucuramye: wakira agahembo gatoya mu majoro menshi, ukariha wewe nyene ingurane nini idakunze kuba. Bwongera amahera ateze mu gihe co gukina, nuko bukongera igihombo citezwe mu gihe co gukina. Ntibugabanya, kandi ntibushobora kugabanya, inyungu ya kazino. Nimba uhisemwo naho bimeze gutyo gukoresha ingendo ya Martingale kuri ruleti, menya imbere aho uzohombokera: ufise itego ry'intango rya $10 n'urugero rwa $500, ni ibihombo bitandatu bikurikirana, ikintu gifise ugushoboka kwa 1,8% kuri buri kigeragezo. Raba Gucunga amahera yo gukinisha na Urugero rw'igihombo / urugero rw'inyungu.