Abitwa Eudaemons
Abanyeshure b'ubumenyi bw'inguvu, uruziga rwa kazino rwaguzwe mu mahera mapfamaboko, n'orudinateri ntoya ku buryo yashobora kwambarwa ku meza.
Kuva mu 1976 gushika mu 1981, umurwi w'abanyeshure b'ubumenyi bw'inguvu b'i Santa Cruz wakoze orudinateri zipima igihe c'umupira n'ica rotor, maze zikavuga igice c'uruziga igihe amatego yari acemerewe. Ibigeragezo vyabo vyasezerana inyungu ya 44%, kandi igihe c'ugukina ca mbere kirekire catanze nka 25%. Ibikoresho vyama bisenyuka, ubwoko bwashizwe mu kirato bwatsinzwe n'urusaku rw'amashanyarazi mu 1981, kandi baronse amadolari ibihumbi bikeyi gusa.
Iciyumviro mu kabari k'i Las Vegas, 1975
Mu ci ryo mu 1975, Norman Packard, umunyeshure w'ubumenyi bw'inguvu, yamaze amezi abiri i Las Vegas aharura amakarata ku mukino wa blackjack hamwe n'umugenzi wiwe Jack Biles, kandi ntibagira ico baronka canke ngo bahombe. Mu kunywa ica nyuma, Biles yavuze ko yotega ko ruleti ishobora gutsindwa n'ubumenyi bw'inguvu, maze Packard yibuka umurongo utumvikana neza wo mu gitabu ca Edward Thorp Beat the Dealer uvuga uburyo bwo gukina ruleti. Bompi baratiye icuma gifata amajwi, bahagarara iruhande y'inziga muri kazino zitandukanye, bakakubita kuri mikoro igihe cose umupiraibikoreshoUmupiraUmupira mutoyi uterwa mu nzira uhushanye na rotor. Imipira y'ubu ikozwe muri ivorine canke Teflon, 18–21 mm.Soma vyose → waca ahantu hamwe hadahinduka. Igihe bavyandika ku mpapuro z'ibishushanyo, ivyo bakubise vyerekanye ko umupira utinda kandi ugwa mu buryo busanzwe. Umugenzi wa Packard bigana Doyne Farmer, umunyeshure wa kaminuza ya California i Santa Cruz, yavuze ko ari uguta umwanya gushika aho yiharuriye ubwiwe: umuntu ashoboye gupima igihe c'umupira gushika ku gice c'icumi c'isegonda, mu kiharuro, yoshobora kuvuga aho uzohagarara hagati y'inomero nkeyi.
Uruziga mu nzu y'ubushakashatsi bw'inguvu
Mu mpeshi yo mu 1976, Farmer na Dan Browne batanze amadolari $1.500 mu mahera mapfamaboko kugira ngo bagure uruziga rwa kazino rwasubiwemwo mu karasisi k'i Reno, bavuga ko ari urw'umusi mukuru w'abanyeshure. Mu mezi menshi, barujana mu ijoro mu nzu y'ubushakashatsi ya kaminuza, barupima n'ibikoresho vy'umucanwa utabonwa, isaha y'amashanyarazi bikoreye ubwabo, n'ikamera yatangura gufotora iyo yumvise umupira ukubise icuma. Ivyo babonye biracari urutonde rugufi rwiza rw'ibihambaye mu kuzunguruka. Umuyaga ni wo utindisha umupira cane, kuruta inzira. Uruziga rutaringaniye na gato, n'aho vyoba ari igice c'icumi c'inci, ruhindura aho umupira uvuye mu nzira, kandi ku ruziga rwegamye umupira ukunda kuvamwo ku ruhande rwo hejuru, bigatuma kuvuga imbere vyoroha. Imipira itandukana: umupira wa Teflon watinda incuro zibiri vuba kuruta uw'ibikoresho vy'imipira ya billard. Kandi umupira umaze kuva mu nzira uracadunda, ku mpuzandengo ntiurenze igice ca kane gushika ku gice ca gatatu c'uruziga. Ukwo gudunda ni co kibazo umugambi wose wari wishimikije, kandi ntikwari kunini ku buryo gusibanganya ivyo bavuze imbere. Mu mpera z'ici, bavuze ko inyungu ishoboka ari 44%, igitigiri Thorp yari yatanze ku gikoresho ciwe.
Ishirahamwe n'umukate
Barise igikorwa cabo Eudaemonic Enterprises, bivuye ku jambo ry'Ikigiriki risobanura agahimbare k'ubuzima buyobowe n'ubwenge. Umuntu wese yagikozemwo yari kuzorihwa avuye mu nyungu zizoza, hakurikijwe amasaha yakoze: igice c'ico bise Eudaemonic Pie (umukate w'aba Eudaemons). Inyungu zari zigenewe kuriha umuryango w'abagenzi bakora ubumenyi uko bishakiye.
Orudinateri mu kwaha, 1976–1978
Imashini ya mbere yavuye ku rudinateri yo kwiyubakira yashitswe n'iposita muri Nyakanga 1976 ku madolari $250, yubatswe kuri processeur 6502 orudinateri za Apple na zo zakoresha. Farmer, atari bwigere atunganya porogaramu, yayishizemwo ingereranyo z'umupira n'iza rotoribikoreshoRotorIgice c'uruziga kizunguruka gifise utuzu.Soma vyose →. Iyakoreshwa muri kazino yambarwa ifashwe ku mubiri, mu kwaha canke, ku bagore, mu kanyabwoya k'amabere. Umukinyi ari ku ruziga yafyonda utubuto n'ino rinini ry'ikirenge: ino rimwe ryerekana zeruuruzigaZeruAkazu kamwe k'icatsi kibisi kadapfukwa n'itego rya rimwe kuri rimwe, ry'umurwi canke ry'inkingi; ni yo soko y'inyungu ya kazino. Kandi bita: zeru imwe, 0.Soma vyose → hanyuma umupira igihe cose vyaca ahantu hamwe hadahinduka, irindi rigahindura uko porogaramu ikora. Guhuza porogaramu n'uruziga rumwe vyafata nk'iminota mirongo ibiri yo gufyonda bucece. Hanyuma, nyuma y'amasegonda makeyi mu kuzunguruka kwose, orudinateri yavuga kimwe mu bice umunani vy'uruzigauruzigaIgice c'uruzigaUrukurikirane rw'utuzu dufatanye ku ruziga, rutandukanye n'umugwi w'inomero ku kibaho c'amatego.Soma vyose →, canke ikerekana “ntutege”, ikoresheje utwuma dutoya dukorera ku mubiri. Umukinyi wa kabiri ari kure ku meza, ahujwe n'umuyagankuba wa radiyo udakomeye, yumva ukwo gukorerwa nyene maze agatega inomero zitatu canke zine z'ico gice, rimwe na rimwe agasubiriza inomero iri iruhande ku ruziga kugira ngo ingendo ntimenyekane vuba.
Urugendo rwa mbere, i Lake Tahoe n'i Reno muri Kigarama 1977, rwabaye ugusenyuka kurekire kw'ibikoresho. Indwi nkeyi zakurikiye, kuri Golden Gate mu gisagara hagati c'i Las Vegas, Farmer yakinnye wenyene amasaha ane n'igice ku masenti icumi kuri jetoniamaheraJetoniIkimenyetso gihagararira amahera adahinduka, gishirwa ku kibaho c'amatego kugira ngo utege. Kandi citwa: check.Soma vyose → imwe. Inyungu yari ntoya, ariko mu kuzunguruka amajana menshi, we na Browne bavuze, mu bwitonzi, ko inyungu yabo ari 25%.
Ici co mu 1978
Muri ico ci, umurwi wakinnye mu masaha y'ibisubirizo mu ndwi nyinshi, mu gisagara hagati no ku Strip, ibihe bibiri vyo gukina ku musi, kandi ntibasubire muri kazino imwe mu majoro akurikirana. Bandika igitabu kuri kazino yose: inziga zayo n'ingene zitaringaniye, abakozi bayo, igihe basubirizanya. Inziga z'i Las Vegas zabaye ko zegamye neza, kandi imikino yo mu ijoro rikeye yari itinda, ivyo ni vyo orudinateri yari ikeneye, kuko rotor itinda n'umupira wihuta bisigira umwanya munini wo gupima no gutega. Hari amajoro meza. Kuri Circus Circus, isubirizwa rya croupierabantuCroupierUmukozi akinisha ku meza ya ruleti.Soma vyose → isaha munani z'ijoro ryahinduye igihe c'ugukina co guhomba kiba amadolari amajana menshi ku masenti 25 kuri jetoni. Kandi ugusenyuka kwama kubaho: insinga zirekuye, radiyo zihinduka bivanye n'ubushuhe, amashanyarazi abakubita avuye mu nsinga z'antene zidodewe mu mashati yabo. Ijoro rimwe utwuma twarafashe, insinga zirashuha cane, maze Ingrid Hoermann akomeza gukina n'aho yari yashiririwe aho kuva ku meza atsinda. Abakozi ba kazino babona ko batsinda ariko ntibamenye uburyo; rimwe croupier, ababajwe n'ikirundo c'amajetoni cariko kiriyongera, yafashe uruziga rwariko ruzunguruka arukwega n'inguvu.
Mu mezi cumi n'atatu bagiye ingendo umunani i Nevada, kandi, bategera cane cane ku masenti cumi n'amasenti mirongo ibiri n'atanu, baronse amadolari ibihumbi bikeyi. Igihe c'ugukina kuri California Club muri Kigarama 1978 catanze amadolari arenga $1.000 mu masaha atatu, kibemeza ko ubwo buryo bukwiye ibikoresho vyiza kuruta.
Packard na Biles bapima igihe c'imipira ya ruleti bakoresheje icuma gifata amajwi i Las Vegas.
Uruziga rwa kazino ruguzwe i Reno; ici co gupima; orudinateri ya mbere yo kwiyubakira.
Urugendo rwa mbere muri kazino, i Lake Tahoe n'i Reno. Ibikoresho birasenyuka.
Golden Gate, Las Vegas: amasaha ane n'igice ku matego y'amasenti cumi, inyungu ivugwa ko ari 25%.
Indwi z'ugukina i Las Vegas orudinateri yambawe ku mubiri.
California Club: amadolari arenga $1.000 mu masaha atatu.
Orudinateri isubirwamwo kugira ngo ijane mu kirato.
Las Vegas: urusaku rw'amashanyarazi rurenga radiyo. Umugambi urahagarara.
Nevada ibuza ibikoresho vyo kuvuga imbere. Igitabu The Eudaemonic Pie kirasohoka.
Orudinateri mu kirato, 1980–1981
Kugira ngo bakure insinga ku mubiri, biyemeje gushira vyose mu birato. Mark Truitt, uwari amaze kurangiza amashure y'ubumenyi bw'inguvu, kandi yari yavuye mu kiganiro co kuronka akazi ka radar ya gisirikare, yabikoreye umwaka n'igice. Iciyumviro catumye bikwira cavuye ku mutekinisiye wa kaminuza: kuzimya orudinateri hagati y'ukuvuga imbere kumwe n'ukundi, bigatuma ikenera amabuye y'amashanyarazi makeyi cane. Truitt yashize ivyuma ku tubaho tubiri yikoreye ubwiwe, ashira kamwe hejuru y'akandi maze yuzuza umwanya hagati n'ishashara rikomeye, bivamwo igice c'inci zibiri kuri zine, kibiziye nk'igice c'inci, cashobora kugenderwako. Amabuye y'amashanyarazi, antene n'utwuma tubiri muri dutatu dukorera ku mubiri vyashizwe mu gitsitsino. Utwuma dutatu ku mivuduko itatu twatanga ibimenyetso icenda: ibice umunani na “ntutege”. Umudozi w'ibirato yacukuye ibirato bisanzwe vy'uruhu ntiyagira ico abaza.
Muri Munyonyo 1981, Farmer n'umwanditsi Thomas Bass bajanye ibirato n'amadolari $2.500 i Las Vegas. Ku meza ya mbere, ukuvuga imbere kwa mbere kwarafashe, hanyuma utwuma dutangura gukora ata ndondoro. Kazino zuzuye urusaku rw'amashanyarazi, ruvuye ku makamera y'ukuraba, ibimenyetso vya neon n'imashini za slot, kandi rwarengeye radiyo nyonyo yahuza ibirato; televiziyo yo mu cumba ca moteli na yo yakora nk'ivyo. Iminsi y'ugusana kw'abantu bane ntiyavyakize, umugambi uhagarara aho. Ibikoresho vyashizwe mu sanduku mu nzu yo munsi y'isi i Santa Cruz.
Ico 44% bisobanura
Ku ruziga rw'Amerika, itego straight upitegoStraight upInomero imwe gusa, iriha 35:1.Soma vyose → ritsinda rimwe mu kuzunguruka 38 ku mpuzandengo kandi rikariha 35 kuri 1, ivyo bigatuma umukinyi ahomba 5,26%. Inyungu ya 44% ni agaciro k'iryo tego nyene iyo ritsinda rimwe mu kuzunguruka 25: amajetoni 36 agaruka kuri yose 25 yateze. Ni ukuvuga ko orudinateri itari ikeneye kumenya inomero. Yari ikeneye gutuma inomero yahisemwo ziza incuro nk'imwe n'igice kuruta uko impfindo ibitanga.
Ni kubera iki inyungu nini yaguma yumvikana nk'ugutega
Inyungu ku 35 kuri 1 iriha buhoro kandi bidahwanye. Umwe mu bajanama b'umurwi yaburiye ko umukinyi ategera $100 ku nomero yoshobora guhomba $10.000 canke $20.000 imbere y'uko inyungu yigaragaza, kandi imibare irabishigikira: n'inyungu ya 44% ku nomero imwe imwe, umukinyi aguma ari inyuma nyuma yo kuzunguruka 100 hafi incuro imwe muri zine. Ni co gituma aba Eudaemons batanguye ku masenti cumi kandi bubaka amahera yo gukinishaamaheraAmahera yo gukinishaAmahera yose yashizwe ku ruhande yo gukina. Gucunga amahera yo gukinisha ni uguhitamwo ayo ushobora gushira mu kaga kuri buri tego no kuri buri gihe c'ugukina.Soma vyose → bavuye mu nyungu, kandi ni co gituma Alan Lewis, uwabinjiyemwo mu 1978, yamaze igihe ciwe yiga ingene botega amahera angana iki. Farmer yahavuye yibaza ko bari bitonze birenze. Amatego matoya yabakingiye, ariko kandi yatumye imyaka y'akazi ibaronsa bike cane.
Ico vyatwaye n'ico vyarishe
Amadolari nka $15.000 yagiye mu bice vy'imashini, ibikoresho n'umushahara wa Truitt, menshi muri yo avuye kuri Farmer no kuri Letty Belin, umunyamategeko yahavuye yubakana na we. Farmer yaharuriwe amasaha 3.500 y'akazi, Truitt 3.000 na Packard 2.000. Ku rundi ruhande hari amadolari ibihumbi bikeyi baronse ku matego matoya. Mu 1983, Farmer yamamaje mu kinyamakuru c'ugutega arondera abashoramari, avuga ko afise icitegererezo gifise inyungu yemejwe muri kazino ya 20 gushika 40%. Igihe aba Eudaemons bakina, ukurondera kwa Belin mu mategeko ya Nevada nta co kwari kwabonye kibuza kuvuga imbere ivyo umukino uzotanga; muri Rusama 1985 leta yagize icaha gukoresha igikoresho kubw'ivyo. Ico cagumye ni ubumenyi. Kwubaka orudinateri vyamenyereje Farmer, Packard n'abagenzi babo kwiga ivy'akavuyo (chaos), ari ho bamenyekaniye.
Gusoma igitabu muri iki gihe
Thomas Bass, uwategeye ku rugendo rwa nyuma, yavuze iyo nkuru mu gitabu The Eudaemonic Pie (1985), yubatswe ku biganiro birebire n'umurwi, kandi ni co kiyago c'uru rupapuro. Inkuru yaco ngufi ya kahise ka ruleti ntiyizewe nk'ivyo kivuga ku mugambi. Gisubiramwo inkuru y'abakarani batandatu ba Jagger, ivuye mu gitabu co mu 1901 gusa (raba Joseph Jagger), kandi gishira ikigeragezo ca Thorp na Shannon muri kazino mu 1962, mu gihe Thorp ubwiwe avuga ko vyabaye mu ci ryo mu 1961.
Ibibazo
Oya. Baronse amadolari ibihumbi bikeyi ku matego y'amasenti cumi n'amasenti mirongo ibiri n'atanu, bakoresha amadolari nka $15.000 n'amasaha ibihumbi vyinshi.
Igihe bakina, Nevada nta tegeko yari ifise ribuza kuvuga imbere ivyo umukino uzotanga ukoresheje igikoresho. Iryo tegeko rirahari kuva mu 1985, kandi ubu ahantu henshi hari kazino na ho rirahari.
Oya aho gutega bihagarara igihe umupira utewe, nk'uko bigenda muri sitidiyo z'imbonankubone, kandi kwinjiza igikoresho nk'ico muri kazino ni icaha mu bihugu vyinshi.
Twinezwe n'Imibare
Banza ubigerageze wewe nyene. Inyishu yose irapfutse; yugurure igihe witeguye.
Abitwa Eudaemons bahiga ko orudinateri yabo ifise agaciro ka 44% kuri straight upitegoStraight upInomero imwe gusa, iriha 35:1.Soma vyose → ku ruziga rw'Amerika, aho iryo tego riha 35 kuri 1. Inomero yatowe itegerezwa gutsinda kangahe kugira ngo ivyo bibe ukuri? Kandi uguhanura kwotegerezwa gukuraho utuzuibikoreshoAkazuKimwe mu bibanza 37 bifise inomero kuri rotor. Kandi bita: slot, cup.Soma vyose → tungahe muri 38, iyo umupiraibikoreshoUmupiraUmupira mutoyi uterwa mu nzira uhushanye na rotor. Imipira y'ubu ikozwe muri ivorine canke Teflon, 18–21 mm.Soma vyose → woba ufise ugushoboka kungana ko kugwa mu kazu kose mu dusigaye?
Erekana inyishu
Inyishu Incuro imwe mu kuzunguruka 25. Ivyo bingana no gukuraho utuzu 13 ugasigaza 25.
JetoniamaheraJetoniIkimenyetso gihagararira amahera adahinduka, gishirwa ku kibaho c'amatego kugira ngo utege. Kandi citwa: check.Soma vyose → itsinze isubira hamwe n'izindi 35: amajetoni 36. Iyo inomero itsinze incuro imwe mu kuzunguruka n, amajetoni n ateze azana 36, ku buryo itego rifise agaciro ka 36/n − 1.
Vyungane na 0,44: 36/n = 1,44, ku buryo n = 25. Hatariho uguhanura n ni 38 kandi itego rifise agaciro ka 36/38 − 1 = −5,26%.
Ubu iyumvire ko uguhanura gukuraho utuzu k kandi umupira ufise ugushoboka kungana ko kugwa muri kamwe kamwe mu twandi 38 − k. Jetoni kuri kamwe muri two itsinda incuro imwe mu kuzunguruka 38 − k. Kuri 44% dukeneye 38 − k = 25, ku buryo k = 13: birenze gato kimwe ca gatatu c'uruziga.
Mu gitabu, Farmer avugwa ko yavuze ko 40% ivuye ku gukuraho utuzu umunani. Kuri ubu buryo bworoshe, umunani utanga 36/30 − 1 = 20%, ku buryo ishusho nyakuri yategerezwa kuba itangana: tumwe mu tuzu dusigaye dufise ugushoboka kunini cane kuruta utundi.
utuzu twakuwehoutuzu dusigayestraight up ifise agaciro ka038−5,26%2360%830+20%1325+44%1919+89%Iyumvire ko inomero yawe vy'ukuri itsinda incuro imwe mu kuzunguruka 25 kuri 35 kuri 1, inyungu y'umukinyi ya 44%. Uteza jetoni imwe kuri buri kuzunguruka. Ufise ugushoboka kungana iki ko kuba uri inyuma inyuma y'ukuzunguruka 100? Inyuma ya 500?
Erekana inyishu
Inyishu Nka 23% inyuma y'ukuzunguruka 100 kandi n'ubu nka 6% inyuma ya 500.
Inyuma y'ukuzunguruka 100 uba umaze guteza amajetoni 100, kandi itsinzi ryose rigarura 36. Amatsinzi abiri azana 72, igihombo ca 28; atatu azana 108, inyungu ya 8. Rero uri inyuma iyo utsinze kabiri canke munsi.
Ugushoboka ko nta tsinzi mu kuzunguruka 100 ni (24/25)¹⁰⁰ = 1,7%. Itsinzi rimwe neza neza: 100 × (1/25) × (24/25)⁹⁹ = 7,0%. Abiri neza neza: 4.950 × (1/25)² × (24/25)⁹⁸ = 14,5%. Hamwe 23,2%.
Inyuma y'ukuzunguruka 500 ukeneye amatsinzi 14 kugira ngo ube imbere (14 × 36 = 504), kandi impuzandengo ni 20. Ugushoboka kwa 13 canke munsi ni nka 6,2%.
Uru ni rwo rundi ruhande rw'itego rigoye. Inyungu ni nini, kandi nka murongo umwe mu ine y'ukuzunguruka 100 ntiyigaragaza. Umukinyi atazi neza ko iyo nyungu iriho ntashobora gutandukanya umurongo mubi n'orudinateri yononekaye, kandi ni ho Eudaemons bakunda kwisanga.
ukuzungurukaamatsinzi akenewe kugira ngo ube imbereugushoboka ko kuba uri inyuma50240,1%100323,2%200618,6%500146,2%Igitabu kivuga ko n'inyungu ya 44%, $100 ateze incuro 50 ku isaha ategerezwa kuzana $2.200 ku isaha. Bisuzume. Hanyuma uharure ivyo iyo nyungu nyene yazanye ku mahera umugwi wateza vy'ukuri: dime (igiceri c'amasenti cumi) kuri buri kuzunguruka.
Erekana inyishu
Inyishu $2.200 ni vyo kuri $100 kuri buri kuzunguruka. Kuri dime kuri buri kuzunguruka ni $2,20 ku isaha.
Inyungu ni igice c'ivyateze vyose. Kuri $100 kuri buri kuzunguruka n'ukuzunguruka 50 ku isaha, hateze $5.000, kandi 44% vyavyo ni $2.200.
Kuri santimu 10 kuri buri kuzunguruka, hateze $5 mu isaha, kandi 44% vya $5 ni $2,20. Naho bopfuka inomero zine kuri dime imwe imwe, ni $8,80 ku isaha ku bantu babiri.
Umugwi wateza make kuko wariko wubaka amahera yo gukinishaamaheraAmahera yo gukinishaAmahera yose yashizwe ku ruhande yo gukina. Gucunga amahera yo gukinisha ni uguhitamwo ayo ushobora gushira mu kaga kuri buri tego no kuri buri gihe c'ugukina.Soma vyose → uvuye ku busa kandi kuko, nk'uko igisokozo kiri hejuru kibigaragaza, inyungu ya 44% kuri 35 kuri 1 ishobora guhomba amasaha. Igiciro c'ubwo bwitonzi ni uko uburyo bwashobora gukora neza rwose bugaheza buriha make kuruta akazi.
Agakuru ko gutwenga
Ubumenyi bw'inguvu bwarakoze. Neon yaratsinze.
Aho Twakuye
- Bass, T. A. The Eudaemonic Pie.
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”
- Thorp, E. O. “The invention of the first wearable computer.”
- Nevada Revised Statutes, chapter 465.