Ikosa ry'Umutezi
Ukwemera ko ivyavuyemwo “bigeze igihe co gusohoka” kubera ko bimaze igihe bitaboneka.
Inyuma y'inomero zitukura cumi, ugushoboka kw'irabura kuracari 18/37. Uruziga ntirwibuka kandi nta ko rufitiye umwenda.
Ikosa
Iyo inomero zitukuraitegoGitukuraItego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ku nomero 18 zitukura. Mu gifaransa: rouge.Soma vyose → zimaze gusohoka incuro cumi, abakinyi benshi biyumvira ko inomero ziraburaitegoCiraburaItego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ku nomero 18 zirabura. Mu gifaransa: noir.Soma vyose → “zigeze igihe co gusohoka” bagatega uko. Abandi biyumvira ko itukura “ishushe” bagatega iyo. Bompi bariko barafata ivyemezo bishingiye ku rukurikirane rwaheze bakabishira ku kuzunguruka kutaraba. UmupiraibikoreshoUmupiraUmupira mutoyi uterwa mu nzira uhushanye na rotor. Imipira y'ubu ikozwe muri ivorine canke Teflon, 18–21 mm.Soma vyose → ntuzi ivyavuyemwo mu nzunguruka cumi ziheze; utuzuibikoreshoAkazuKimwe mu bibanza 37 bifise inomero kuri rotor. Kandi bita: slot, cup.Soma vyose → tuzingana nk'uko twari tungana isaha imwe iheze; ugushobokaimibareUgushobokaUgushoboka kw'ivyavuyemwo, kuva kuri 0 gushika kuri 1 canke 0% gushika 100%. Inomero imwe: 1/37 = 2,70%.Soma vyose → kw'irabura ni 18/37 nk'uko kwama.
Ni kubera iki vyumvikana nk'ukuri
Mu gihe kirekire, ibice vy'itukura n'irabura vyegera koko 18/37 kuri kimwe cose. Itegeko ry'ibitigiri vyinshiimibareItegeko ry'ibitigiri vyinshiImpuzandengo y'ivyavuyemwo vyigenga yegera agaciro kitezwe uko incuro z'igeragezwa zigenda ziyongera.Soma vyose → rirabiharanira. Ariko uko kwegera kuba mu kuvangwa, si mu gukosorwa: inyuma y'inzunguruka 1.000 ziyongera, inomero zitukura cumi z'inyongera ziba ari ikintu gito cane mu gice, si kubera ko irabura yafashe itukura ariko kubera ko icitegererezo cakuze. Nta kintu na kimwe gituma irabura irushiriza gushoboka, kandi itegeko ry'ibitigiri vyinshi ntiriwukenera.
Monte Carlo, 18 Nyandagaro 1913
Irabura yasohotse incuro 26 zikurikiranye ku meza yo muri Casino de Monte-Carlo. Guhera nko ku rabura ya cumi n'itanu, abakinyi bahurumbira ku tukura, bakuba kabiri kandi bagasubira gukuba kabiri, buri kuzunguruka “kudakekwa kuruta” ukwakubanjirije. Kazino yatsinze amamiliyoni y'amafaranga y'Ubufaransa. Urwo rukurikirane rwari rufise ugushoboka kwa 1 kuri miliyoni 137 guhera ku rabura ya mbere, kandi ugushoboka ko rwoshitse kuba ahantu na hamwe mu makazino yo kw'isi kwari hafi kwa rimwe ryuzuye. Ni co gituma ikosa ry'umutezi ryitwa kandi ikosa rya Monte Carlo.
Nta gitangaje. Biba incuro imwe muri 44.
Abakinyi batangura kubibona. Itukura “igeze igihe co gusohoka”.
Ameza yuzuye abantu. Amahera ateze ku tukura akubwa kabiri inyuma ya buri gihombo.
Amatunga arahombwa. Buri rabura nshasha ituma itukura yumvikana nk'idakekwa kuruta.
Urukurikirane ruhera. Kazino imaze gutsinda amamiliyoni y'amafaranga y'Ubufaransa ku bantu bateze barwanya urukurikirane rutashobora “kumenya” ko ari urukurikirane.
Ikiganza gishushe
Gushigikira ibara kubera ko riri mu rukurikirane ni ikosa nyene rihindukiye: urukurikirane rwitezwe kubandanya aho kuruhera. Abahinga mu vy'imitima barabyita ikiganza gishusheumuganiUkuboko gushusheIciyumviro c'uko urukurikirane rw'itsinzi, canke rw'ivyavuyemwo bimwe, rutuma ibindi nk'ivyo bishoboka cane. Ku ruziga ni ikosa ry'umutezi ryahinduwe inyuma.Soma vyose →, ukurikije ubushakashatsi bwo mu 1985 bwa Gilovich, Vallone na Tversky bwarondera urukurikirane mu gutera umupira muri basketball ntibuboneke kiretse urw'impfindo. Mu 2018, Miller na Sanjurjo berekanye ko igerageza ubwaryo ryari ribogamye: mu cegeranyo kigufi, igice c'ugufata kuza inyuma y'ugufata kiba kiri munsi y'igipimo rusangi c'umutezi ku mpuzandengo, ku buryo umukinyi adafise ikiganza gishushe na gato asa n'akanye gato. Bikosowe, ayo makuru nyene yerekana ikiganza gishushe gito. Umuntu arashobora gushuha; uruziga nta mitere rugira. Abakinyi bamwe bemera ivyompi icarimwe, ko urukurikirane rubandanya gushika “rurerure cane” hanyuma rugahera. Ku ruziga rutabogamye, buri buryo bufise agaciro kitezweimibareAgaciro kitezweIvyavuyemwo vy'impuzandengo kuri buri tego mu gihe kirekire. −1/37 c'amahera y'itego kuri buri tego risanzwe ry'i Buraya.Soma vyose → kangana n'ako guhitamwo ibara utereye igiceri: −2,70% vy'amahera y'itego.
Ku meza nyayo
Croson na Sundali (2005) barabye amasaha 18 ya videwo z'umutekano z'ameza amwe ya zeruuruzigaZeruAkazu kamwe k'icatsi kibisi kadapfukwa n'itego rya rimwe kuri rimwe, ry'umurwi canke ry'inkingi; ni yo soko y'inyungu ya kazino. Kandi bita: zeru imwe, 0.Soma vyose → zibiri muri kazino nini y'i Reno: abakinyi 139 bashize amatego 24.131. Ku matego ya rimwe kuri rimweitegoItego rya rimwe kuri rimweGitukura/cirabura, igiharwe/igiharuro, binini/bito. Inomero 18, riha 1:1.Soma vyose →, abakinyi bari bigabuyemwo nk'ibice bingana hagati yo gukurikira urukurikirane rugufi no kururwanya. Inyuma y'ivy'ubwoko bumwe bitanu bikurikiranye, bahengamira ku kurwanya urukurikirane, kandi inyuma ya bitandatu canke birenga, 85% vy'amatego yabo vyari ku rundi ruhande. Abo bakinyi nyene berekanye ikiganza gishushe ku vyabo ubwabo: inyuma yo gutsinda ku nomero, ku mpuzandengo bafata inomero 13,6 ku kuzunguruka gukurikira, ugereranije na 9,2 inyuma y'igihombo. Uruziga rwabo nta kimenyetso c'ukubogama rwerekanye, ku buryo nta na kimwe muri ivyo cahinduye ivyo umwe wese muri bo yashobora kwitega.
Hanze ya kazino
Iyo nkwegero nyene iboneka aho ivyemezo nyakuri bifatirwa. Clotfelter na Cook (1993) bakurikiranye umukino w'inomero wa misi yose wo muri Maryland: amahera yateze ku nomero yaragabanuka cane ikimara gutorwa kandi agatwara amezi kugira asubire, naho itora ritagira ico ryibuka. Chen, Moskowitz na Shue (2016) babisanze mu bahinga. Abacamanza b'ubuhungiro bo muri Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika bari bafise ugushoboka gushika ku manota 3,3 y'ijana menshi yo kwanka urubanza iyo bari bemeye urwabanje. Abasifuzi ba baseball bari bafise ugushoboka kuri munsi ku manota 1,5 yo kwemeza strike inyuma yo kwemeza imwe, kandi incuro zirenga zibiri z'ivyo ku nterero zigoye. Mu gerageza ryo ku kibanza hamwe n'abakozi b'inguzanyo bahembwa amahera adahinduka, gushika 9% vy'ivyemezo vyahinduwe gutyo. Imanza zaza mu rukurikirane rw'impfindo, ku buryo icemezo ca nyuma nta co cavuga ku gikurikira, nk'uko ukuzunguruka kwa nyuma nta co kuvuga ku gukurikira.
Ikosa ry'umutezi rihindukiye
Umuhinga mu vy'ubwenge Ian Hacking (1987) yise uburyo bwa gatatu. Umuntu yinjira mu cumba, abona amadado abiri agwa kuri gatandatu na gatandatu, agaca yemeza ko yategerezwa kuba yamaze guterwa incuro nyinshi. Buri guterwa gufise ugushoboka kungana ko gutanga gatandatu na gatandatu, ukwa mbere kw'umugoroba canke ukwa gihumbi, ku buryo ivyo yabonye nta co bivuga ku gihe umukino umaze. Kuri ruleti, ni umukinyi ashika ku kibaho cerekana inomero zitukura umunani akemeza ko ameza ategerezwa kuba yamaze amasaha azunguruka kugira azisohore. Ikosa risanzwe rishira ivyahise mu kuzunguruka gukurikira; iri rishira ikintu kiba gake mu vyahise ata wabibonye.
Umuhinga mu vy'imitima yarabyemera
Iryo kosa ryagize abarishigikira b'abize. Umuhinga mu vy'imitima w'Umudage Karl Marbe yarabye ibitabo bine vy'ivyavutse 49.152 kuri kimwe cose, asanga urukurikirane rurerure rw'abahungu canke rw'abakobwa bakurikiranye ari 17, yemeza ko urukurikirane rurerure ruba gake kuruta uko impfindo ibitanga, ku buryo urukurikirane rutuma ikindi kivamwo kirushiriza gushoboka. Impfindo yonyene ivuga ibindi: mu vyavutse 196.608, urukurikirane rwa 17 canke rurenga ruboneka nk'incuro zine kuri zitanu. Marbe yari yabonye neza ukuntu ibikurikirana vy'impfindo bisa. Epstein (2013) arasubira kuvuga iyo nkuru; Ugushoboka kw'Urukurikirane gutanga uburyo bwa ruleti.
Aho ikosa ritakora
Iyo uruziga ruba rubogamye mu buryo bw'umubiri, inzunguruka zahise zoba zifise ico zivuga, kubera ko zoba ari icemezo ku tuzu aho kuba ku mahirwe. Ico ni co kiganiro c'Ikibanza c'Ubushakashatsi, kandi gikenera inzunguruka ibihumbi zo ku ruziga rumwe ruzwi kugira kivuge ikintu. Ku rukurikirane rw'inomero zitukura cumi ku ruziga rutazwi, insobanuro y'ukubogama ifise ugushoboka gutoyi cane kuruta iy'impfindo.
Ibibazo
Oya. Rireba ikintu cose gisubirwamwo kidafatanye: amadado, ibiceri, inomero za tombola.
Ibice bizokwegerana. Ivyavuyemwo vyawe bizoguma ari nka −2,70% vy'ayo wateze.
Nta tegeko ry'impuzandengo ribaho. Hariho itegeko ry'ibitigiri vyinshi, kandi rikora mu kuvanga.
Twinezwe n'Imibare
Banza ubigerageze wewe nyene. Inyishu yose irapfutse; yugurure igihe witeguye.
Inyuma y'ugutera igiceri incuro 10, cerekana umutwe incuro 7 n'umurizo incuro 3. Inyuma y'ugutera incuro 1.000, cerekana umutwe incuro 517 n'umurizo incuro 483. Umurizo warafashe umutwe?
Erekana inyishu
Inyishu Oya. Itandukaniro ryavuye kuri 4 rishika kuri 34. Igipimo conyene ni co cegereye uburinganire.
Igipimo c'umutwe ku murizo camanutse kiva kuri 7/3, hafi 2,33, gishika kuri 517/483, hafi 1,07. Ico ni itegeko ry'ibitigiri vyinshiimibareItegeko ry'ibitigiri vyinshiImpuzandengo y'ivyavuyemwo vyigenga yegera agaciro kitezwe uko incuro z'igeragezwa zigenda ziyongera.Soma vyose → rikora.
Itandukaniro hagati yavyo ryarakuze, riva kuri 4 rishika kuri 34. Ku giceri kitabogamye, itandukaniro rya nka 30 inyuma y'ugutera incuro 1.000 ni ibisanzwe: itandukaniro risanzwe rikura hafi nk'umuzi wa kabiri w'igitigiri c'ugutera, mu gihe igipimo kiguma cegera 1.
Nta kintu cagaruye umurizo inyuma. Umutwe w'iyongera wo mu ntango wahwekejwe n'ugutera 990 kwakurikiye, ntiwakosowe.
Tera igiceri incuro zine kandi urabe gusa ugutera gukurikira ubwo nyene umutwe. Ni igice kingana iki c'ugutera nk'ukwo kuvamwo umutwe? Biharure kuri buri rukurikirane muri 16 zishoboka kandi ufate impuzandengo y'ivyo bice. Ni 50%?
Erekana inyishu
Inyishu Oya. Ni 17/42, hafi 40,5%. Ubiravye gutya, igiceri kitabogamye gisa n'igikanye inyuma y'umutwe.
Tondeka inkurikirane 16 (H = umutwe, T = umurizo). Zibiri muri zo, TTTT na TTTH, nta mutwe zifise mu gutera gutatu kwa mbere, ku buryo nta kintu gikurikira umutwe; hasigara 14.
Muri rumwe rwose, fata ugutera gukurikira umutwe urondere igice kivamwo umutwe. HHHH itanga 3 muri 3. HHHT itanga 2 muri 3. HTHT itanga 0 muri 2. Uciye muri zose 14: inkurikirane zitandatu zitanga 0, zine zitanga 1/2, imwe itanga 2/3 n'eshatu zitanga 1 (HHHH, THHH na TTHH).
Teranya ivyo bice: 4 × 1/2 + 2/3 + 3 = 17/3. Gabanya na 14: 17/42 ≈ 40,5%.
Nta gutera gutonesha umurizo; ukwose ni 50–50. Ukwunama guturuka ku gufata impuzandengo urukurikirane ku rundi: urukurikirane rwuzuye imitwe rufise ugutera kwinshi ko kuraba ariko ruharurwa rimwe, kimwe n'urukurikirane rufise ugutera kumwe gusa ko kuraba. Miller na Sanjurjo (2018) berekanye ko ubushakashatsi bwo mu 1985 ku “kuboko gushushe” bwari bwapimye abakinyi babwo ba basketball muri ubu buryo, ku buryo abakinyi basa n'abatagira imirongo y'amatsinzi irenze impfindo mu vy'ukuri bari bafise imirongo irenze gatoyi.
Agakuru ko gutwenga
Ukuvangwa, si ugukosorwa. Uruziga nta mwenda rufise.
Aho Twakuye
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Schwartz, D. G. Roll the Bones: The History of Gambling.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.
- Croson, R. & Sundali, J. “The gambler’s fallacy and the hot hand: empirical data from casinos.”
- Chen, D. L., Moskowitz, T. J. & Shue, K. “Decision making under the gambler’s fallacy: evidence from asylum judges, loan officers, and baseball umpires.”
- Clotfelter, C. T. & Cook, P. J. “The ‘gambler’s fallacy’ in lottery play.”
- Gilovich, T., Vallone, R. & Tversky, A. “The hot hand in basketball: on the misperception of random sequences.”
- Miller, J. B. & Sanjurjo, A. “Surprised by the hot hand fallacy? A truth in the law of small numbers.”
- Hacking, I. “The inverse gambler’s fallacy: the argument from design. The anthropic principle applied to Wheeler universes.”