Akarorero: Igihe c'Ugukina na Martingale
Amadolari cumi ku gitukura, akubwa kabiri inyuma ya buri gihombo, ku meza y'urugero rwa $500. Ukuzunguruka ku kundi, harimwo n'ukuzunguruka kuvyo bihagarika.
Igihe c'ugukina co kwigana hakoreshejwe Martingale, uhereye ku mahera yo gukinisha $1.000. Amatsinzi mato mirongo ine n'rimwe, hanyuma ibihombo bitandatu bikurikirana n'itego rya indwi ryanswe. Igihe c'ugukina kirangira kiri munsi ya $220 inyuma yo kuba warungukiye $410, kandi ico ni co ubu buryo bukora.
Umugambi
Tega $10 ku gitukuraitegoGitukuraItego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ku nomero 18 zitukura. Mu gifaransa: rouge.Soma vyose →. Inyuma y'igihombo, kuba kabiri. Inyuma y'itsinzi, subira kuri $10. Urugero rw'amezaamezaUrugero rw'amezaItego ritoya n'irinini kuruta ayandi vyemewe. Urugero rwo hejuru ni rwo ruhagarika iyongerekana rikuba kabiri.Soma vyose → ni $500, rero amahera y'itego ni 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320 hanyuma itego rya $640 ameza azokwanka. Ibihombo bitandatu bikurikirana bivuna ubu buryo; buri ngerageza ifise (19/37)⁶ ≈ 1,8% yo kubivuna, kandi igihe c'ugukina c'inzunguruka 100 kirimwo ingerageza nka 50. Icitezwe: nka 60% vy'ugushoboka ko buvunika mu kuzunguruka 100, n'igihombo ca $630 iyo bivunitse.
Ukuzunguruka 1–30
Martingaleingendo yo gutegaMartingaleIyongerekana rikuba kabiri itego inyuma y'igihombo cose. Raba igice c'Ingendo zo gutega umenye ivyo bukora n'ivyo budakora.Soma vyose → isanzwe: urukurikirane rw'igihombo kimwe gushika ku bitatu, kimwe cose kirangizwa n'itsinzi rizana +$10 nyakuri. Ku kuzunguruka 30 tumaze kugira amatsinzi 17, rimwe rimwe ririmwo umuzingi, twungutse $170. Amahera y'itego menshi gushika ubu yari $80 inyuma y'ibihombo bitatu. Wumva ari imashini icapura inoti za $10.
Ukuzunguruka 31–60
Bimwe nyene, harimwo umuzingi umwe w'ibihombo bine (amahera y'itego gushika kuri $160, hanyuma itsinzi) washize $310 ku meza akanya gato bikumvikana nk'ubutwari. Inyuma y'ukuzunguruka 60: imizingi 41 yarangiye, twungutse $410, kandi amahera yo gukinishaamaheraAmahera yo gukinishaAmahera yose yashizwe ku ruhande yo gukina. Gucunga amahera yo gukinisha ni uguhitamwo ayo ushobora gushira mu kaga kuri buri tego no kuri buri gihe c'ugukina.Soma vyose → yamanutse hasi cane kuri $1.040. Igishushanyo c'igihe c'ugukina cose ca Martingale kimeze gutya mu bunini bwaco bwinshi.
Ukuzunguruka 61–66
H H H H H H. Amahera y'itego 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320: $630 zirahomba. Itego rikurikira ryoba $640; urugero ni $500. Uburyo buravunitse. Dushobora gutega $500 (kandi iyo ritsinze, tukaguma turi munsi ya $130 kuri uwo muzingi) canke gusubira kuri $10 tukemera igihombo. CiraburaitegoCiraburaItego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ku nomero 18 zirabura. Mu gifaransa: noir.Soma vyose → canke zeruuruzigaZeruAkazu kamwe k'icatsi kibisi kadapfukwa n'itego rya rimwe kuri rimwe, ry'umurwi canke ry'inkingi; ni yo soko y'inyungu ya kazino. Kandi bita: zeru imwe, 0.Soma vyose → gatandatu zikurikirana bifise ugushobokaimibareUgushobokaUgushoboka kw'ivyavuyemwo, kuva kuri 0 gushika kuri 1 canke 0% gushika 100%. Inomero imwe: 1/37 = 2,70%.Soma vyose → kwa 1,8% kuri buri muzingi. Twari tumaze nk'imizingi 45. Ugushoboka kwo gushika aha ahantu mu mizingi 45 kwari nka 55%. Si umuhirwe mubi; ni co gisanzwe hagati.
- p10 −$1.000
- p25 −$1.000
- hagati −$1.000
- p75 +$790
- p90 +$1.690
Ibiharuro
Twungutse $410 inyuma y'ukuzunguruka 60, turi munsi ya $220 inyuma ya 66. Amahera yateze yose: nka $2.100 mu kuzunguruka 66, mu gihe uwutega $10 angana yoteze $660. Igihombo citezweimibareIgihombo citezweAgaciro kitezwe gakubwe n'amahera yose yateze; ni amahera y'impuzandengo atakara mu gihe c'ugukina canke mu gihe runaka.Soma vyose → kuri $2.100 z'igiteranyo c'amategoamaheraIgiteranyo c'amategoIgiteranyo c'amahera yose yateze mu gihe c'ugukina canke mu kiringo, harimwo n'ivyatsinzwe vyongeye gutegwa. Kandi bita: handle, action.Soma vyose → ni $57; −$220 yacu iri nka kimwe ca gatatu c'itandukaniro risanzweimibareItandukaniro risanzweUmuzi kare w'ihindagurika ry'ivyavuyemwo; intera isanzwe iri hagati y'ivyavuyemwo n'agaciro kitezwe.Soma vyose → munsi yaho, kandi ivyo si igitangaza ku buryo bufise ivyavuyemwo birekereye kure ibubamfu. Iyo duhagarara ku kuzunguruka 60 dufise urugero rw'inyunguingendo yo gutegaUrugero rw'inyunguIntumbero y'inyungu yashinzwe imbere, ushitseko ugahagarika igihe c'ugukina.Soma vyose → rwa $400, twari kugenda twungutse $410, kandi igihe c'ugukina gikurikira cari kugumana 1,8% imwe kuri buri muzingi.
Ivyo iki gihe c'ugukina cerekana
Martingale ihindura itego rya 48,65% ikarigira urukurikirane rutsinda 98% y'imizingi yarwo rugahomba ibiceamaheraIgiceAmahera y'itego y'ishingiro uburyo canke umukinyi akoresha. Iyongerekana ridondorwa mu bice kugira ngo rikore ku meza ayo ari yo yose.Soma vyose → 63 kuri 2% isigaye. Ntihindura igihombo citezwe kuri buri dolari; ikuba amadolari. Uwutega amahera angana iruhande rwacu yateze kimwe ca gatatu c'amahera yacu kandi yarahombye, ku mpuzandengo, kimwe ca gatatu. Umukinyi akoresha ubu buryo umwaka wose azotsinda imigoroba myinshi ariko ahombe umwaka.
Ukuntu urukurikirane rw'ibihombo ruza kenshi
Itego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ku ruziga rwa zeru imwe rihomba mu kuzunguruka 19 kuri 37. Umurongo wose werekana ugushoboka ko inzunguruka zikurikirana zingana gutyo zose zihomba, n'ivyo umukinyi wa Martingale, akuba kabiri inyuma y'igihombo cose, amaze guhomba gushika ico gihe.
| ibihombo bikurikirana | ugushoboka | nka 1 kuri | ivyahombye gushika ubu | itego rikurikira |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51,4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26,4% | 4 | $3 | $4 |
| 3 | 13,5% | 7 | $7 | $8 |
| 4 | 7,0% | 14 | $15 | $16 |
| 5 | 3,6% | 28 | $31 | $32 |
| 6 | 1,8% | 55 | $63 | $64 |
| 7 | 0,94% | 106 | $127 | $128 |
| 8 | 0,48% | 207 | $255 | $256 |
| 9 | 0,25% | 403 | $511 | $512 |
| 10 | 0,13% | 784 | $1.023 | $1.024 |
| 11 | 0,065% | 1527 | $2.047 | $2.048 |
| 12 | 0,034% | 2974 | $4.095 | $4.096 |
| 13 | 0,017% | 5792 | $8.191 | $8.192 |
| 14 | 0,0089% | 11279 | $16.383 | $16.384 |
| 15 | 0,0046% | 21965 | $32.767 | $32.768 |
Ugushoboka ni 19/37 gukubwe nako ubwako incuro imwe kuri buri gihombo, guharurwa kuva ku kuzunguruka kumwe kwagenywe. Igihe c'ugukina kirekire kirimwo inzunguruka nyinshi aho urukurikirane nk'urwo rushobora gutangurira, rero mu mugoroba umwe birashoboka cane kuruta ivyo umurongo umwe werekana.
Ibibazo
Ibihombo icenda ni vyo bivuna aho kuba bitandatu: 0,25% kuri buri muzingi, na $5.110 zihomba iyo bibaye. Umukuku uza gake, umukuku muremure, −2,70% imwe.
Ryari gutsinda ku 48,65% vy'igihe rigasiga umuzingi kuri −$130 uko biri kwose. Nta ntambwe nziza iriho inyuma ya Martingale ivunitse; hariho gusa amahera y'itego uhitamwo gukurikira.
Ego, kuri ico gihe c'ugukina. Si ku mpuzandengo y'ibihe vyose.
Twinezwe n'Imibare
Banza ubigerageze wewe nyene. Inyishu yose irapfutse; yugurure igihe witeguye.
Ku meza ya $1 gushika $500, umukinyi wa Martingaleingendo yo gutegaMartingaleIyongerekana rikuba kabiri itego inyuma y'igihombo cose. Raba igice c'Ingendo zo gutega umenye ivyo bukora n'ivyo budakora.Soma vyose → atangura kuri $1 kuri gitukuraitegoGitukuraItego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ku nomero 18 zitukura. Mu gifaransa: rouge.Soma vyose → ku ruziga rwa zeruuruzigaZeruAkazu kamwe k'icatsi kibisi kadapfukwa n'itego rya rimwe kuri rimwe, ry'umurwi canke ry'inkingi; ni yo soko y'inyungu ya kazino. Kandi bita: zeru imwe, 0.Soma vyose → imwe. Ni ibihombo bingahe bikurikirana bihagarika ugukuba kabiri, ni amahera angahe yahomvye ico gihe, kandi bibaho kangahe?
Erekana inyishu
Inyishu Ibihombo icenda: $511 yahomvye, kandi itego rikurikira ryoba $512. Bibaho incuro imwe mu nkurikirane nka 403.
Amahera y'itego ni 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128 na 256: hamwe $511. Irya cumi ryoba $512, rirenga urugero. Itego rya $500 ritsinze riracasiga umukinyi ari munsi ku $11; iryo rihomvye rimusiga ari munsi ku $1.011.
Gitukura gihomba ku gushoboka kwa 19/37, ku buryo ibihombo icenda bikurikirana bifise ugushoboka kwa (19/37)⁹ ≈ 0,25%, incuro imwe mu nkurikirane nka 403. Urukurikirane rwose rurangiye rutsinda $1, ku buryo umukinyi yitega amatsinzi matoyi nka $402 imbere y'igihombo kimwe ca $511, kandi 2,70% y'ivyatezwe vyose iracahomba ku mpuzandengo.
Ku ruziga rwa zeru zibiri ugushoboka ni (20/38)⁹, incuro imwe muri nka 323. Bollman (2021) yanditse “hafi 1 muri 833”, ari vyo (18/38)⁹, ugushoboka kw'amatsinzi icenda akurikirana.
Agakuru ko gutwenga
Amatsinzi mato mirongo ine n'rimwe n'igihombo kinini kimwe. Ubwo ni uburyo bwose.
Aho Twakuye
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”