Insiguro y'Ibiharuro
“Bihambaye” bisigura ko bitoshoboka cane ku ruziga rutabogamye, si “ivy'ukuri” kandi si “ivyunguka”.
p-value ya 0,05 isigura ko uruziga rutabogamye rworema ishusho iteye kuri ubwo buryo incuro imwe mu mirongo ibiri. Iyo urabye inziga mirongo ibiri, rumwe ruzorenga igeragezwa ku mpanuka.
p-value ico ari co
Ni ugushobokaimibareUgushobokaUgushoboka kw'ivyavuyemwo, kuva kuri 0 gushika kuri 1 canke 0% gushika 100%. Inomero imwe: 1/37 = 2,70%.Soma vyose → ko kubona ugutandukana nibura kungana n'ukwabonetse, iyo uruziga rwoba rutabogamye. Ni ivyerekeye amakuru hashingiwe ku ciyumviro, si ivyerekeye uruziga. p-valueubushakashatsip-valueUgushoboka kwo kubona itandukaniro rinini nk'iryabonetse canke rirengeye, iyo uruziga rutoba rubogamye.Soma vyose → ya 0,03 ivuga iti: uruziga rutabogamye rukora ivyo mu 3% vy'igihe. Ntivuga iti: hari ugushoboka kwa 97% ko uruziga rubogamye. Ivyo vya kabiri vyokenera kumenya ingene inziga zibogamyeubushakashatsiUruziga rubogamyeUruziga rufise amakosa y'ivyuma atuma utuzu tumwe dushobora gufata kuruta 1/37. Ni gake, kandi rumenyekana gusa n'ukuzunguruka ibihumbi vyanditswe.Soma vyose → ziboneka kenshi imbere y'ibindi vyose, kandi mu kazino ya none ni gake cane, ivyo bigatuma ivyavuyemwo bihambaye bibonetse rimwe bishoboka cane kuba impanuka kuruta kuba ikintu cabonetse.
Ukugereranya kwinshi
Igeragezwa ryose ukora ku ruziga rutabogamye rifise ugushoboka kwa 5% ko kurenga ku rugero rwa 5%. Gerageza inziga mirongo ibiri, rumwe ruzorenga. Gerageza uruziga rumwe mu bihe mirongo ibiri bitandukanye, kimwe kizorenga. Gerageza icitegererezo kimwe ukoresheje ingene 37 zo kugabura utuzuibikoreshoAkazuKimwe mu bibanza 37 bifise inomero kuri rotor. Kandi bita: slot, cup.Soma vyose →, ingene zitandatu zo kugabura ibice vy'uruzigauruzigaIgice c'uruzigaUrukurikirane rw'utuzu dufatanye ku ruziga, rutandukanye n'umugwi w'inomero ku kibaho c'amatego.Soma vyose → n'ingene zitatu zo kugabura amabara, hari ikizorenga. Umuti ni ugufata ingingo y'igeragezwa imbere yo kuraba amakuru, ukarikora rimwe, ukavyemeza ku makuru mashasha. Ugusuzuma kuronka uruziga “rubogamye” kenshi ni kwo nyene kwazanye ivyo vyavuyemwo.
Ukuba bihambaye n'urugero
Icitegererezo kinini cane gishobora gutuma ukubogama gutoyi cane kuba guhambaye. Akazu gafatwa ku 1/36,5 aho kuba 1/37 ni ikibazo nyakuri c'ibikoresho cokwemezwa ko gihambaye mu kuzunguruka imiliyoni nkeyi kandi cobandanya gutakaza amahera kuri irihaamaheraIrihaIvyo itego ritsinze rizana, bivugwa nka “X kuri 1” hiyongereyeko amahera y'itego asubizwa.Soma vyose → rya 35 kuri 1. Igihambaye ku mukinyi ni urugero rw'ingaruka: hari akazu gafatwa ku 1/36 canke kurenza, kandi ku rugero rungana iki? Chi-square ikubwira ivyerekeye uruziga; urugero akazu gafatwa ni rwo rwonyene rukubwira ivyerekeye itego.
Inguvu z'igeragezwa
Irindi kosa ni uguhusha ukubogama guhari. Mu kuzunguruka 1.000, akazu ka 1/30 (ukubogama kunini cane) kamenyekana nk'incuro imwe mu zibiri gusa ku rugero rwa 5%. Ingene icitegererezo kingana, si ubwenge, ni vyo bikosora ivyo. Urupapuro “Ingene Icitegererezo Kingana” rutanga ibitigiri.
Urugero rukoreshwa mu ngiro
Kugira ngo ivyavuzwe vy'ukubogama bishimishe: igeragezwa ryatowe imbere, p < 0,01 aho kuba 0,05, ugusubiramwo ku citegererezo cigenga kingana n'ica mbere, n'urugero rugereranijwe utuzu dushigikiwe dufatwa rwa 1/34 canke kurenza inyuma yo gusubiramwo. Urwo rugero rwarashitsweko incuro nkeyi mu kahise k'uyu mukino kandi nta na rimwe, nk'uko inyandiko zishikirwa n'abantu bose zibigaragaza, ku ruziga rwa none rubungabunzwe.
Ibibazo
Ni akamenyero kuva mu myaka ya 1920. Nta kidasanzwe gifise; 0,01 ni urugero rwumvikana kurushiriza iyo urimwo urasuzuma inziga nyinshi.
Birashoboka ko rudatanga ivyavuyemwo bingana. Vyoshobora kuba ingaruka ya croupier, ikosa ryo kwandika canke ikibazo co kwinjiza amakuru. Subiramwo.
Oya. Bikubwira ko ugutandukana kudasanzwe. Isuzuma ry'igice c'uruziga n'urugero rw'ingaruka ni vyo bikubwira aho.
Twinezwe n'Imibare
Banza ubigerageze wewe nyene. Inyishu yose irapfutse; yugurure igihe witeguye.
Ku ruziga rufise zeruuruzigaZeruAkazu kamwe k'icatsi kibisi kadapfukwa n'itego rya rimwe kuri rimwe, ry'umurwi canke ry'inkingi; ni yo soko y'inyungu ya kazino. Kandi bita: zeru imwe, 0.Soma vyose → zibiri rwavuzwe, umurwiitegoUmurwi1–12, 13–24 canke 25–36, riha 2:1.Soma vyose → wa mbere wasohotse incuro 742 mu kuzunguruka 3.000. Ivyo biri munsi y'impuzandengo n'amatandukaniro asanzweimibareItandukaniro risanzweUmuzi kare w'ihindagurika ry'ivyavuyemwo; intera isanzwe iri hagati y'ivyavuyemwo n'agaciro kitezwe.Soma vyose → angahe, kandi uruziga rutabogamye rwobikora kangahe?
Erekana inyishu
Inyishu Nka matandukaniro asanzwe 8,1 munsi. Uruziga rutabogamye rwobikora nka rimwe mu kugerageza 3 × 10¹⁵, ni ukuvuga nta na rimwe. Inyishu yasohowe hamwe n'ikibazo ivuga 11,75; twebwe turonka 8,07.
Umurwi wa mbere urimwo 12 mu tuzuibikoreshoAkazuKimwe mu bibanza 37 bifise inomero kuri rotor. Kandi bita: slot, cup.Soma vyose → 38. Mu kuzunguruka 3.000 ugira impuzandengo ya 3.000 × 12/38 = 947,4 vy'amafata, n'ukwiragira kwa √(3.000 × 12/38 × 26/38) = 25,5.
742 iri 205,4 munsi y'impuzandengo: 205,4/25,5 = 8,07 vy'ukwiragira.
Uruziga rutabogamye ruguma munsi n'ukwiragira gutatu nka rimwe mu kugerageza 740; munsi n'umunani, nka rimwe muri 3 × 10¹⁵ (umurongo w'inzogera, uruhande rumwe). Kwibuka ko usoma yabonye umurwi mubi kuruta mu mirwi itatu nta kintu gihambaye gihindura. Ivyavuyemwo nk'ibi bivuga ko uruziga, canke iharura, ritari ryo. Ku ruziga rufise zeru imwe, iryo harura nyene ryoba ari ukwiragira 9,0 munsi (impuzandengo 973,0, ukwiragira 25,6).
Agakuru ko gutwenga
Uruziga rumwe mu mirongo ibiri rutabogamye ruba “ruhambaye”. Ico ni co ico gitigiri gisigura.
Aho Twakuye
- Pearson, K. “On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable…”
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Wizard of Odds. “Ask the Wizard”, ibibazo vyerekeye ruleti.