Ingendo ya D'Alembert muri Ruleti
Ingendo ya D’Alembert muri ruleti yongerako igice kimwe inyuma y'igihombo kandi ikurako kimwe inyuma y'itsinzi.
Ntitsinda uruziga. Ni iyongerekanaingendo yo gutegaIyongerekanaItegeko ryose rihindura amahera y'itego hisunzwe ivyavuyemwo vyabanje. Iyongerekana rihakana riyongereza inyuma y'ibihombo, iryemeza inyuma y'itsinzi.Soma vyose → rimenyerewe riringaniye kuruta ayandi: amahera y'itego aduga buhoro, igabanuka ry'amahera riringaniye, kandi inyungu ya kazino ntihinduka.
Kurikira ubwo buryo
Igihombo kiguduza intambwe imwe. Itsinzi igusubiza inyuma intambwe imwe.
Amahera y'itego n'ivyavuyemwo biharurwa mu bice vy'itego ry'intango.
Uburyo bwa D’Alembert muri ruleti, intambwe ku yindi
Tega igiceamaheraIgiceAmahera y'itego y'ishingiro uburyo canke umukinyi akoresha. Iyongerekana ridondorwa mu bice kugira ngo rikore ku meza ayo ari yo yose.Soma vyose → kimwe. Uhomvye, itego rikurikira riruta irya mbere ku gice kimwe. Utsinze, rigabanukaho igice kimwe, ariko ntiriba munsi ya kimwe. Ni ivyo gusa. Iyumvire umunzani: buri gihombo kiduza amahera y'itego intambwe imwe kandi buri tsinzi rirayamanura. Ivyemezo biri munsi ni uko intsinzi n'ibihombo bizoringanira, rero amahera y'itego azosubira ku gice fatizo. Igikwega ni uko buri mugwi w'itsinzi rimwe n'igihombo kimwe ku mahera y'itego akurikirana uzana +1 igice nyakuri: uhomba 3, utsinda 4, nyakuri +1.
Igihe c'ugukina gisa gute?
Kiroroshe, amahera y'itego agenda aduga buhoro. Kubera ko ibihombo biruta intsinzi 19 kuri 18 ku matego ya rimwe kuri rimwe, amahera y'itego agenda aduga mu gihe c'ugukina kirekire. Kubera ko amahera y'itego aba menshi kuruta iyo wamaze guhomba, kandi make iyo utsinda, amahera y'itego ku mpuzandengo mu bihe vyo guhomba aruta ayo mu bihe vyo gutsinda. Ibihe vy'ugukina biroroshe kuruta ivya Martingaleingendo yo gutegaMartingaleIyongerekana rikuba kabiri itego inyuma y'igihombo cose. Raba igice c'Ingendo zo gutega umenye ivyo bukora n'ivyo budakora.Soma vyose →, bifise igabanuka ry'amaheraamaheraIgabanuka ry'amaheraUkugabanuka kuva ku rugero rwo hejuru rw'amahera yo gukinisha gushika ku rwo hasi rukurikira mu gihe c'ugukina. Igabanuka rinini kuruta ayandi ni ryo rirenga ayandi yose.Soma vyose → riringaniye kandi nta mukore, kandi bihomba buhoro kuruta gutega amahera anganaingendo yo gutegaGutega amahera anganaGutega amahera angana kuri buri kuzunguruka. Ni urugero iyongerekana ryose rigereranywa na rwo.Soma vyose → ku mpuzandengo kubera ko amahera y'itego ku mpuzandengo aruta.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- hagati −$500
- p75 −$500
- p90 −$500
Uburyo bwa D’Alembert burakora?
Oya. Igihe c'ugukina kiringaniye kiratsinda, kandi ibihe vy'ugukina ntibiguma biringaniye. Inyuma y'intsinzi w n'ibihombo l ku mahera y'itego akurikirana, ivyavuyemwo nyakuri ni w − l vy'ibice wongeyeko ikosorwa rishingiye aho wari uri ku ngazi. Iyo w = l ivyavuyemwo ni +w vy'ibice neza, ivyo bisa n'inyungu yemejwe. Ingorane ni uko w = l atari vyo vyitezwe: mu nzunguruka 37 witega intsinzi 18 n'ibihombo 19. Igihombo kimwe c'inyongera ku mahera y'itego yaduze gushika, nk'akarorero, ku bice 8 gitwara vyinshi kuruta imigwi umunani ya +1 yabonetse. Ivyitezwe bivamwo −1/37 y'igiteranyo c'amategoamaheraIgiteranyo c'amategoIgiteranyo c'amahera yose yateze mu gihe c'ugukina canke mu kiringo, harimwo n'ivyatsinzwe vyongeye gutegwa. Kandi bita: handle, action.Soma vyose → cose, nk'uko bitegerezwa.
Kubera iki ibihe bigufi vy'ugukina akenshi bitsinda?
Ikibazo kiringaniye ni igice c'itegeko rimwe ripfuka ibihe vy'ugukina vyose. Vuga D igitigiri c'ibihombo ukuyemwo igitigiri c'intsinzi. Igihe c'ugukina c'inzunguruka N gitangura ku gice kimwe kirangira kuri (N − D²)/2 − D vy'ibice, mu gihe nta tego ry'igice kimwe ritsinze (inyuma y'itsinzi nk'iryo amahera y'itego nta ho ashobora kumanukira). Iyo D = 0 ni +N/2, +w y'igice kiri hejuru. Buri gihombo c'inyongera giharurwa gukubwa na co ubwaco: inyuma y'inzunguruka 100, D ya 4 isiga +38 vy'ibice, D ya 8 isiga +10, kandi D ya 10 isiga −10. Impfindo yonyene ikwiragiza D nka √N, cumi inyuma y'inzunguruka 100, kandi mu mukino utagira zeruuruzigaZeruAkazu kamwe k'icatsi kibisi kadapfukwa n'itego rya rimwe kuri rimwe, ry'umurwi canke ry'inkingi; ni yo soko y'inyungu ya kazino. Kandi bita: zeru imwe, 0.Soma vyose → inyungu z'ibihe vyinshi biringaniye n'ibihombo vy'ibihe bike bitaringaniye birahura neza. Zeru yongerako igihombo kimwe c'inyongera mu nzunguruka 37 ku mpuzandengo, kandi kubera ko D ikubwa na yo ubwayo, ikiguzi cayo gikura vuba kuruta igihe c'ugukina. Ibihe vyinshi vy'ugukina gushika ku nzunguruka 100 birangira bwunguka; impuzandengo ntiyigera ibigira, kandi uhejeje inzunguruka amajana makeyi, ibihe vyinshi vy'ugukina na vyo birahomba.
Bigenda gute uhinduye?
Contra-D’Alembert, yitwa kandi D’Alembert ihindukiranye, yongerako igice inyuma y'itsinzi ikakurako kimwe inyuma y'igihombo. Isa neza n'iya mbere mu ndorerwamo. Mu gihe nta tego ry'igice kimwe rihomvye, igihe c'ugukina c'inzunguruka N kirangira kuri (D² − N)/2 + D vy'ibice, aho D ubu ari intsinzi ukuyemwo ibihombo. Igihe c'ugukina kiringaniye gihomba igice c'igice kuri buri kuzunguruka, kandi urukurikirane rw'intsinzi ziruta cane ibihombo ni rwo rwonyene ruzana inyungu. Ubwo rero ibihe vyinshi vy'ugukina bihomba buhoro kandi bike bitsinda vyinshi, bihabanye n'ishusho y'iya mbere, kandi impuzandengo ni 2,70% nyene vy'amahera yatezwe.
D’Alembert yari nde?
Jean le Rond d’Alembert, umuhinga mu mibare kandi umwe mu bategura Encyclopédie, yavuze mu kiganiro co mu 1754 ko inyuma y'urukurikirane rw'umutwe, umurizo uba ushoboka cane. Yari yihenze, kandi ikosa ryitiriwe izina ryiwe ni ubwoko bw'ikosa ry'umutezi. Uburyo bwa D’Alembert muri ruleti bwitiriwe izina ryiwe mu nyuma, n'abatezi bari bafise ivyo vyemezo nyene. Si we yabutunganije kandi birashoboka ko atari kubushigikira.
Hariho ubundi buryo?
Contra-D’Alembert, iri hejuru, igenda nka Paroliingendo yo gutegaParoliIyongerekana ryemeza: kuba kabiri inyuma y'itsinzi, gusubira ku ntango inyuma y'igihombo canke inyuma y'itsinzi zitatu zikurikirana. Kandi bita: Martingale ihindukiye.Soma vyose → yoroshe. Abakinyi bamwe bongerako ibice bibiri inyuma y'igihombo bagakurako kimwe inyuma y'itsinzi, ivyo bigatuma ingazi zikomera zegera ivya Martingale. Uburyo bwose bufise igihombo citezweimibareIgihombo citezweAgaciro kitezwe gakubwe n'amahera yose yateze; ni amahera y'impuzandengo atakara mu gihe c'ugukina canke mu gihe runaka.Soma vyose → kimwe kuri buri gice gitezwe.
Igikoresho co kwigana · D'Alembert
Ibihe vyo gukina 2.000 vy'amatego ya rimwe kuri rimwe uhereye ku mahera yo gukinisha ya $1.000.
Itego ry'intango $10 · urugero rw'ameza $500 · ukuzunguruka 100 ku gihe c'ugukina
Ukuntu urukurikirane rw'ibihombo ruza kenshi
Itego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ku ruziga rwa zeru imwe rihomba mu kuzunguruka 19 kuri 37. Umurongo wose werekana ugushoboka ko inzunguruka zikurikirana zingana gutyo zose zihomba, n'ivyo umukinyi wa D’Alembert, yongerako itego ry'intango rimwe inyuma y'igihombo cose, amaze guhomba gushika ico gihe.
| ibihombo bikurikirana | ugushoboka | nka 1 kuri | ivyahombye gushika ubu | itego rikurikira |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51,4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26,4% | 4 | $3 | $3 |
| 3 | 13,5% | 7 | $6 | $4 |
| 4 | 7,0% | 14 | $10 | $5 |
| 5 | 3,6% | 28 | $15 | $6 |
| 6 | 1,8% | 55 | $21 | $7 |
| 7 | 0,94% | 106 | $28 | $8 |
| 8 | 0,48% | 207 | $36 | $9 |
| 9 | 0,25% | 403 | $45 | $10 |
| 10 | 0,13% | 784 | $55 | $11 |
| 11 | 0,065% | 1527 | $66 | $12 |
| 12 | 0,034% | 2974 | $78 | $13 |
| 13 | 0,017% | 5792 | $91 | $14 |
| 14 | 0,0089% | 11279 | $105 | $15 |
| 15 | 0,0046% | 21965 | $120 | $16 |
Ugushoboka ni 19/37 gukubwe nako ubwako incuro imwe kuri buri gihombo, guharurwa kuva ku kuzunguruka kumwe kwagenywe. Igihe c'ugukina kirekire kirimwo inzunguruka nyinshi aho urukurikirane nk'urwo rushobora gutangurira, rero mu mugoroba umwe birashoboka cane kuruta ivyo umurongo umwe werekana.
Ibibazo
Ntigira umukore, ivyo bituma iba iyongerekana rihakana ryoroshe kuruta ayandi. Ntihenda bike kuruta gutega amahera angana; ihenda buhoro kuruta.
Ni urugero rw'amezaamezaUrugero rw'amezaItego ritoya n'irinini kuruta ayandi vyemewe. Urugero rwo hejuru ni rwo ruhagarika iyongerekana rikuba kabiri.Soma vyose → canke amahera yo gukinishaamaheraAmahera yo gukinishaAmahera yose yashizwe ku ruhande yo gukina. Gucunga amahera yo gukinisha ni uguhitamwo ayo ushobora gushira mu kaga kuri buri tego no kuri buri gihe c'ugukina.Soma vyose → yawe gusa. Mu gihe c'ugukina kirekire co guhomba, aduga ata guhagarara.
Twinezwe n'Imibare
Banza ubigerageze wewe nyene. Inyishu yose irapfutse; yugurure igihe witeguye.
Ukina D’Alembert kuri gitukuraitegoGitukuraItego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ku nomero 18 zitukura. Mu gifaransa: rouge.Soma vyose → mu kuzunguruka 50, utanguye ku giceamaheraIgiceAmahera y'itego y'ishingiro uburyo canke umukinyi akoresha. Iyongerekana ridondorwa mu bice kugira ngo rikore ku meza ayo ari yo yose.Soma vyose → kimwe, kandi ntutsinde na rimwe itego ry'igice kimwe (inyuma y'itsinzi nk'iryo, amahera y'itego ntiyoba afise aho amanuka). Uheraheza ufise ibihombo 27 n'amatsinzi 23. Uri imbere canke inyuma n'ibice bingahe? Bite n'ibihombo 29 n'amatsinzi 21?
Erekana inyishu
Inyishu +13 vy'ibice n'ibihombo 27, −15 vy'ibice na 29. Ukuzunguruka kubiri muri mirongo itanu guhindutse gutwara ibice 28.
Vuga D ibihombo ukuyemwo amatsinzi. Ivyavuyemwo ni (N − D²)/2 − D ku kuzunguruka N. N'ibihombo 27 n'amatsinzi 23, D = 4: (50 − 16)/2 − 4 = 17 − 4 = +13. Na 29 na 21, D = 8: (50 − 64)/2 − 8 = −7 − 8 = −15.
Igituma iryo tegeko riri ukuri: amahera y'itego yama ari igice kimwe wongeyeko ibihombo vyabaye ukuyemwo amatsinzi yabaye. Igihombo cose itsinzi rikurikira riharira kigira umugwi, guhomba s hanyuma gutsinda s + 1, uzana +1 igice nyakuri, nk'uko igishushanyo kiri hejuru kibigaragaza. Mu kuzunguruka N, imigwi nk'iyo (N − D)/2 irabaho, ifise agaciro ka +(N − D)/2. Ibihombo D bisigaye vyashizwe ku mahera y'itego 1, 2 … D mu kuduga kandi ntivyigeze biharirwa; bitwara 1 + 2 + … + D = D(D + 1)/2. Hamwe: (N − D)/2 − D(D + 1)/2 = (N − D²)/2 − D.
Ukwikuba ni yo nkuru yose. Igihe c'ugukina kingana kiriha igice c'igice kuri buri kuzunguruka, kandi intambwe yose iva ku kungana itwara birenze iyayibanjirije.
Ukina D’Alembert ihinduye kuri gitukura mu kuzunguruka 100, utanguye ku gice kimwe, kandi nta tego ry'igice kimwe rihomba na rimwe. Uheraheza ufise amatsinzi 52 n'ibihombo 48. Uhagaze he? Bite n'amatsinzi 60 n'ibihombo 40?
Erekana inyishu
Inyishu −38 vy'ibice n'amatsinzi 52, +170 na 60. Kuba imbere gato mu matsinzi biracahomba; kuba imbere cane gusa ni vyo biriha.
Vuga D amatsinzi ukuyemwo ibihombo. Ivyavuyemwo ni (D² − N)/2 + D ku kuzunguruka N.
Amatsinzi 52 n'ibihombo 48: D = 4, ku buryo (16 − 100)/2 + 4 = −42 + 4 = −38.
Amatsinzi 60 n'ibihombo 40: D = 20, ku buryo (400 − 100)/2 + 20 = 150 + 20 = +170.
Igituma: itsinzi ryose igihombo gikurikira giharira rigira umugwi, gutsinda kuri s hanyuma guhomba kuri s + 1, uzana −1 nyakuri. Amatsinzi D asigaye yashizwe ku mahera y'itego 1, 2 … D mu kuduga kandi ntiyigera aharirwa; azana D(D + 1)/2. Mu kuzunguruka N, imigwi (N − D)/2 irabaho, ku buryo igiteranyo ari D(D + 1)/2 − (N − D)/2 = (D² − N)/2 + D.
Ni itegeko rya D’Alembert y'intango ibimenyetso bihinduwe: ng'aho, ukungana gutsinda igice c'igice kuri buri kuzunguruka kandi ukutangana kugahanwa; ng'aha, ukungana gutwara igice c'igice kuri buri kuzunguruka kandi ukutangana kugahembwa.
Agakuru ko gutwenga
Yitiriwe umuhinga mu mibare yihenze ku giceri.
Aho Twakuye
- RouletteDoc. Insobanuro y'ingendo n'uturorero.
- Roulette77. Insobanuro y'ingendo n'uturorero.
- d’Alembert, J. “Croix ou pile.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.