Ugushikana mu Gihe Kirekire: Itegeko ry'Ibitigiri Vyinshi muri Ruleti
Ukuntu impuzandengo igenda yegera −2,70%, n'igituma bifata igihe kirekire kuruta uko umuntu yiyumvira.
Igihombo co ku mpuzandengo kuri buri kuzunguruka cegera −1/37 uko ukuzunguruka kwiyongera, kandi ukwikwiragiza kwaco kugabanuka nka 1/√N. Inyuma y'ukuzunguruka 1.000 utega ku gitukura, impuzandengo isanzwe iri muri ±3% y'iyitezwe.
Itegeko ry'ibitigiri vyinshi
Impuzandengo y'amatego yigenga igenda yegera agaciro kitezweimibareAgaciro kitezweIvyavuyemwo vy'impuzandengo kuri buri tego mu gihe kirekire. −1/37 c'amahera y'itego kuri buri tego risanzwe ry'i Buraya.Soma vyose →. Inyuma y'ukuzunguruka N utega itego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ry'igiceamaheraIgiceAmahera y'itego y'ishingiro uburyo canke umukinyi akoresha. Iyongerekana ridondorwa mu bice kugira ngo rikore ku meza ayo ari yo yose.Soma vyose → kimwe, ivyavuyemwo ku mpuzandengo kuri buri kuzunguruka bifise icitezwe kingana na −1/37 n'itandukaniro risanzweimibareItandukaniro risanzweUmuzi kare w'ihindagurika ry'ivyavuyemwo; intera isanzwe iri hagati y'ivyavuyemwo n'agaciro kitezwe.Soma vyose → rya 1/√N. Kuri N = 100, uko kwikwiragiza ni 10% vy'amahera y'itego, hafi incuro zine z'ikimenyetso ca 2,7%. Kuri N = 1.000 ni 3,2%, hafi bingana n'ikimenyetso. Kuri N = 10.000 ni 1%, kandi inyungu ya kazino iraboneka neza. Inyungu ya kazino ntiboneka mu gihe c'ugukina kimwe, ariko mu mwaka umwe ntihakekwa.
Ikigera ku gitigiri kimwe n'ikitakigeraho
Impuzandengo kuri buri kuzunguruka irashikira igitigiri kimwe. Igiteranyo co si ko: kigenda kirushiriza kwitandukanya na zeru uko N yiyongera, ku rugero rwa 2,7% vya N ku vyitezwe, n'ukwikwiragiza kwa √N kuri ico gitigiri. Umukinyi amaze kuzunguruka 10.000 atega $10 yitezwe kuba yahomvye $2.700, wongereyeko canke ukuyeko $1.000. Igipimo c'inomero zitukuraitegoGitukuraItego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ku nomero 18 zitukura. Mu gifaransa: rouge.Soma vyose → kimaze igihe kinini cagumye hafi ya 48,65%; amahera asigaye mu ntoke ntaho yigeze agarukira.
- p10 −$440
- p25 −$280
- hagati −$140
- p75 +$0
- p90 +$140
Igituma ivyiyumviro vy'umuntu bihuba
Abantu biyumvira ko inyungu ya kazino izoboneka vuba kubera ko 2,70% vyumvikana nk'ibintu vyinshi, kandi biyumvira ko imirongo miremire “izoringanira” kubera ko itegeko ry'ibitigiri vyinshiimibareItegeko ry'ibitigiri vyinshiImpuzandengo y'ivyavuyemwo vyigenga yegera agaciro kitezwe uko incuro z'igeragezwa zigenda ziyongera.Soma vyose → rivuga ko impuzandengo zishikira igitigiri kimwe. Ivyo vyiyumviro vyose bihuba ku rugero: inyungu ya kazino ni nto ugereranije n'ihindagurika ry'ivyavuyemwoimibareIhindagurika ry'IvyavuyemwoIgipimo c'ukuntu ivyavuyemwo bikwiragira kure y'agaciro kitezwe. Kinini kuri straight up, gito ku matego ya rimwe kuri rimwe.Soma vyose → ry'ukuzunguruka kumwe (σ = igice 1 kuri EV = 0,027), ku buryo bisaba (1/0,027)² ≈ ukuzunguruka 1.400 kugira ngo iboneke ku rugero rwa sigma imwe. Kandi kuba impuzandengo yegera igitigiri kimwe nta co bikora mu kugarura igiteranyo; bigabanya gusa uburemere bw'ihindagurika ryahise.
Ukwegera igitigiri kimwe ku yandi matego
Ku matego ya straight upitegoStraight upInomero imwe gusa, iriha 35:1.Soma vyose → σ = 5,84, ku buryo iyo harura nyene itanga (5,84/0,027)² ≈ ukuzunguruka 47.000 kugira ngo inyungu ya kazino ishike kuri sigma imwe. Umukinyi wa straight up arashobora gukina imyaka n'imyaka atarabona inyungu ya kazino itandukanye n'amahirwe mu vyo yanditse, kandi ariha neza neza 2,70% nk'umukinyi w'igitukura ayibona mu ndwi nkeya.
Ico bivuze mu kugerageza uburyo bwo gutega
Uwo wese avuga ko uburyo bwo gutega bukora akwiye kubwerekana ku kuzunguruka 10.000 canke birenga, n'impuzandengo y'inyungu yanditswe. Ku kuzunguruka 1.000, impuzandengo y'inyungu ku itego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ishika incuro imwe kuri zitanu iyo nta buryo bukora; ku kuzunguruka 100 ni hafi nko gutera igiceri. Ibikoresho vyo kwigana biri kuri uru rubuga bikina ibihe vy'ugukina 2.000 vy'uburebure wahisemwo mu musegonda umwe, ivyo bikaba ari ivyemeza birenze ivyo umuntu wese yokubwira.
Ingingo y'imibare
Ibibazo
UgushobokaimibareUgushobokaUgushoboka kw'ivyavuyemwo, kuva kuri 0 gushika kuri 1 canke 0% gushika 100%. Inomero imwe: 1/37 = 2,70%.Soma vyose → kwo kwongera kuba imbere kugenda kugabanuka kwegera zeru uko ukina. Igiteranyo kigenda kimanuka ata herezo.
Oya. Risobanura ko ihindagurika ryahise rihinduka igice gito c'icegeranyo kinini kurushiriza.
Ku matego ya rimwe kuri rimwe, hafi 10.000 imbere y'uko inyungu ya kazino iboneka neza. Kuri straight up, hafi 50.000.
Twinezwe n'Imibare
Banza ubigerageze wewe nyene. Inyishu yose irapfutse; yugurure igihe witeguye.
Abagenzi babiri bakina ivyiciro 20 vy'umukino utabogamyeimibareUmukino utabogamyeUmukino aho nta ruhande rufise inyungu: itego ryose rifise agaciro kitezwe ka zeru.Soma vyose →, ugutera igiceri canke gitukuraitegoGitukuraItego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ku nomero 18 zitukura. Mu gifaransa: rouge.Soma vyose → kuri ciraburaitegoCiraburaItego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ku nomero 18 zirabura. Mu gifaransa: noir.Soma vyose → zeruuruzigaZeruAkazu kamwe k'icatsi kibisi kadapfukwa n'itego rya rimwe kuri rimwe, ry'umurwi canke ry'inkingi; ni yo soko y'inyungu ya kazino. Kandi bita: zeru imwe, 0.Soma vyose → zisubizwa, bakandika amanota uko bagenda. Harura ivyiciro umwe wese aba ari imbere (ukunganya guharurwa ku wari imbere imbere gato y'aho). Ni ikihe gishoboka cane: ko kuba imbere bigabanywa ivyiciro 10 kuri 10, canke ko umugenzi umwe aba imbere mu vyiciro vyose 20?
Erekana inyishu
Inyishu Umugenzi umwe kuba imbere mu vyiciro vyose 20 birashoboka cane kuruta: 35,2%, uharuye uwo ari we wese muri bo, ugereranije na 6,1% ku kugabana kungana kwa 10 kuri 10.
Ugushoboka ko amanota y'umukino utabogamye angana inyuma y'ivyiciro 2k ni u = C(2k, k)/2²ᵏ: 0,246 inyuma y'ivyiciro 10 na 0,176 inyuma ya 20. Inyishu izwi, itegeko rya arc-sine, ivuga ko ugushoboka ko umugenzi umwe yavuzwe aba imbere mu vyiciro 2k neza neza muri 2n ni u(2k) × u(2n − 2k).
Kuba imbere mu vyose 20: u(20) × u(0) = 0,176 kuri umwe wese, 35,2% kuri uwo ari we wese. Ukugabana kungana: u(10) × u(10) = 0,246² = 6,1%, ukugabana kudashoboka cane kuruta ukundi kwose.
Rero mu mukino utabogamye, kuba imbere ntibikunda guhinduka. Umukinyi amaze umugoroba wose ari imbere, canke ari inyuma, nta kintu kidasanzwe yabonye, kandi nta co bivuga ku ruziga canke ku bumenyi. Epstein (2013) atanga iryo tegeko nyene ku mikino miremire: igice c'incuro, uruhande rufise amahirwe menshi ruba imbere mu birenga 85% vy'umukino.
Agakuru ko gutwenga
Impuzandengo irashikira igitigiri kimwe. Igiteranyo co kiragenda gusa.
Aho Twakuye
- Bernoulli, J. Ars Conjectandi.
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.