Ingingo ya Kelly na Ruleti

Igipimo

John Kelly (1956) yabajije ukuntu umutezi azi inyungu afise yokwiye kugera amatego yiwe kugira ngo amahera yo gukinishaamaheraAmahera yo gukinishaAmahera yose yashizwe ku ruhande yo gukina. Gucunga amahera yo gukinisha ni uguhitamwo ayo ushobora gushira mu kaga kuri buri tego no kuri buri gihe c'ugukina.Soma vyose → akure cane mu gihe kirekire. Inyishu, ku itego riha b kuri 1 rifise ugushobokaimibareUgushobokaUgushoboka kw'ivyavuyemwo, kuva kuri 0 gushika kuri 1 canke 0% gushika 100%. Inomero imwe: 1/37 = 2,70%.Soma vyose → p kwo gutsinda n'ugushoboka q = 1 − p kwo gutsindwa, ni ugutega igice f* = (bp − q) / b c'amahera yo gukinisha. Iyo f* iri hejuru ya zeru, tega ico gice; iyo ari zeru canke munsi ya zeru, ntutege. Kelly yakora muri Bell Labs, kandi inyandiko yiwe, “A new interpretation of information rate”, yashize ico kibazo mu nyigisho ya Claude Shannon yerekeye amakuru: umutezi aronka inama biciye ku murongo urimwo urwamo, ku giciro kitabogamye, ashobora gukuza amahera yo gukinisha ku rugero rutarenga urw'amakuru uwo murongo utwara. Mu 1961, Leo Breiman yaremeje ko gutega kwa Kelly, mu gihe kirekire, guheza imbere y'ingendo yose itandukanye na yo, kandi gushika ku ntumbero yashinzwe mu gihe kigufi cane.

Gutega kwa Kelly muri ruleti

Ku gitukuraitegoGitukuraItego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ku nomero 18 zitukura. Mu gifaransa: rouge.Soma vyose →: b = 1, p = 18/37, q = 19/37; f* = (18/37 − 19/37)/1 = −1/37. Kuri straight upitegoStraight upInomero imwe gusa, iriha 35:1.Soma vyose →: b = 35, p = 1/37, q = 36/37; f* = (35/37 − 36/37)/35 = −1/1295. Itego risanzwe ryose ritanga igice ca Kelly kiri munsi ya zeru, kubera ko itego ryose rifise inyungu iri munsi ya zeru, kandi amahera y'itego meza kuruta ayandi mu gukuza ni zeru. Gutega kwa Kelly kuri ruleti ni uburyo bw'imibare bwo kuvuga ivyo urupapuro rw'inyungu ya kazino ruvuga: nta rugero na rumwe rw'itego rufise agaciro kitezwe kari munsi ya zeru rukuza amahera yo gukinisha.

Aho Kelly yakoreshejwe koko

Abakinyi bakoresha ukubogama kw'uruziga bari bafise inyungu n'ikibazo co kugera amatego. Jagger, umuryango wa García-Pelayo n'Eudaemons bose bategerezwa guhitamwo amahera bategera ku nyungu bapimye, kandi gutega bike gutakaza inyungu mu gihe gutega vyinshi bishobora kugusahura imbere y'uko inyungu yigaragaza. Ku kazuibikoreshoAkazuKimwe mu bibanza 37 bifise inomero kuri rotor. Kandi bita: slot, cup.Soma vyose → gafata incuro 1 kuri 30, Kelly avuga 0,57% vy'amahera yo gukinisha kuri buri kuzunguruka kuri iyo nomero: ufise $10.000, hafi $57 ku kuzunguruka, ku iyongerekana risanzwe rya hafi 0,054% ku kuzunguruka, canke ×1,7 mu kuzunguruka 1.000. Inyungu ku mpuzandengo ikubye kabiri, 0,11% ku kuzunguruka, ariko Kelly arondera amahera yo gukinisha asanzwe, si ayo ku mpuzandengo, ayo imirongo mike y'amahirwe yongeza. Igice ca kabiri ca Kelly ni co gihitamwo gisanzwe mu ngiro kubera ko igereranya ry'inyungu ritizigirwa neza.

Abakinyi ba Ruleti Bazwi CaneAbitwa Eudaemons

Ivyisanzwe n'ivyo ku mpuzandengo

Itandukaniro hagati y'amahera yo gukinisha asanzwe n'ayo ku mpuzandengo ni rinini. Fata akazu gafata incuro 1 kuri 25, inyungu ya 44%, igitigiri Thorp atanga ku gikoresho ciwe. Kelly ategako 1,26% vy'amahera yo gukinisha. Inyuma y'ukuzunguruka 1.000, amahera yo gukinisha asanzwe aba yakuze incuro nka 11,5, mu gihe ayo ku mpuzandengo, yongerejwe n'imirongo mike y'amahirwe menshi cane, aba yakuze incuro nka 249. Gutega birenze Kelly vyongereza impuzandengo bikagabanya ivyavuyemwo bisanzwe: ku mahera y'itego akubye kabiri aya Kelly, amahera yo gukinisha asanzwe akuba kabiri gusa, kandi ku ncuro zibiri n'igice z'amahera y'itego ya Kelly, aragabanuka, naho itego ryose rigifise inyungu ya 44%. Gutega bike ntibitwara vyinshi: igice c'amahera y'itego kigumana hafi bitatu vya kane vy'iyongerekana.

Iyo inyungu ari ikiharuro c'ukwiyumvira

Kelly yiyumvira ko inyungu izwi. Ku meza irigereranywa, kandi iryo gereranya akenshi riba riri hejuru cane. Akarorero ka Epstein, kubakiye kuri 44% ya Thorp, ni inomero yafashe incuro 49 mu kuzunguruka 1.225 kw'uruziga rufise zeruuruzigaZeruAkazu kamwe k'icatsi kibisi kadapfukwa n'itego rya rimwe kuri rimwe, ry'umurwi canke ry'inkingi; ni yo soko y'inyungu ya kazino. Kandi bita: zeru imwe, 0.Soma vyose → zibiri: incuro 1 kuri 25, inyungu ya 44%, amahera y'itego ya Kelly ya 1,26%. Ariko uruziga rutabogamye rufise zeru zibiri rufise inomero 38, kandi iyakunze gufata kuruta izindi muri zo ishika ku ncuro 49 canke zirenga mu kuzunguruka 1.225 hafi incuro imwe kuri icenda. Inomero yakunze gufata cane mu vyanditswe vyose ni yo kandi amahirwe yafashije cane, ku buryo n'akazu kabogamye koko kaboneka mu vyanditswe nk'aho keza kuruta uko kari: umuvumo w'uwatsinze. Nimba ako kazu mu vy'ukuri katabogamye, amahera y'itego ya Kelly ni itego gusa rihomba 5,26% ku mpuzandengo. Inyishu zisanzwe ni ugutega igice ca Kelly no kubandanya guharura gushika inyungu yigaragaje mu vyanditswe bishasha (raba Ukuntu Wamenya Ukubogama kw'Uruziga rwa Ruleti).

Abantu bafise inyungu

Kumenya inyungu si kimwe no kuyikoresha neza. Haghani na Dewey (2016) bahaye abantu 61 $25 umwe umwe ngo bategere ku giceri mu gice c'isaha, bababwira ko kigwa ku mutwe 60% vy'igihe, kandi inyungu ntizirenge $250 (abakinyi bamenya urwo rugero ari uko barushitseko). Kelly avuga ngo tega 20% vy'amahera yo gukinisha ku mutwe incuro zose, kandi abanditsi bagereranya ko amatego angana ya 10–20% yoshika kuri urwo rugero hafi 95% vy'igihe. Abakinyi 21% gusa ni bo bahashitse. 28% barahomvye vyose, 18 muri 61 bateze vyose ku gutera kumwe, hafi kimwe ca gatatu bahereza munsi ya $25 batanguranye, kandi irihaamaheraIrihaIvyo itego ritsinze rizana, bivugwa nka “X kuri 1” hiyongereyeko amahera y'itego asubizwa.Soma vyose → ku mpuzandengo ryari $91. Batanu gusa muri 61 bari barumvise igipimo ca Kelly. Ufise inyungu, urugero rw'amatego ni rwo rutuma uyigumana; utayifise, nko ku ruziga rutabogamye, nta rugero na rumwe rufasha.

Ico wokoresha aho kuba ivyo

Utagira inyungu, kugera amatego ni ikibazo c'ingengo y'amahera, si ikibazo c'iyongerekana: amahera y'itego = ayo wemera gukoresha kuri buri kuzunguruka, akuwe ku ngengo y'amahera y'isaha n'umuvuduko w'ameza (urupapuro Gucunga Amahera yo Gukinisha Ruleti). Ico Kelly azanira umukinyi asanzwe ni ukutomoka kw'inyishu yiwe: zeru. Ivyo wese utega birenze zeru ni igiciro co gukina, wihitiyemwo, kitatunganijwe na formule iyo ari yo yose.

Ijambo ku gice ca Kelly no ku “gucunga amahera”

Uburyo bugurishwa nka “Kelly ya ruleti” busaba igice kidahinduka c'amahera yo gukinisha kuri buri tego ni ugutega amahera anganaingendo yo gutegaGutega amahera anganaGutega amahera angana kuri buri kuzunguruka. Ni urugero iyongerekana ryose rigereranywa na rwo.Soma vyose → n'amahera y'itego agenda agabanuka. Butakaza 2,70% vy'igiteranyo c'amategoamaheraIgiteranyo c'amategoIgiteranyo c'amahera yose yateze mu gihe c'ugukina canke mu kiringo, harimwo n'ivyatsinzwe vyongeye gutegwa. Kandi bita: handle, action.Soma vyose → kandi, kubera ko amahera y'itego agabanuka uko uhomba, butuma ugusahurwa kuza buhorobuhoro aho kuba ko kudashoboka. Ni uburyo bubereye bwo gutuma ingengo y'amahera imara igihe; si Kelly, kuko Kelly yovuga ngo hagarara.

Ingendo yo Gutega Amahera Angana muri Ruleti

Ingingo y'imibare

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