Akarorero: Umuhingamo wa D’Alembert
Igice kimwe hejuru inyuma y'igihombo, igice kimwe hasi inyuma y'itsinzi, gitukura ku kuzunguruka kwose mu kuzunguruka ijana. Uburyo bworoshe kuruta ubundi, n'ico ukworoha gutwara.
Igihe c'ugukina co kwigana c'ukuzunguruka 100 hakoreshejwe D’Alembert, $5 ku gice. Amahera y'itego yasubiye kuri $5 incuro zitanu, aduga gahoro gahoro gushika kuri $80 mu gihe kibi, arangira kuri $55 igihe c'ugukina kiri munsi ya $40. Uburyo busa n'uburinganire kandi atari bwo.
Kurikira ubwo buryo
Igihombo kiguduza intambwe imwe. Itsinzi igusubiza inyuma intambwe imwe.
Amahera y'itego n'ivyavuyemwo biharurwa mu bice vy'itego ry'intango.
Umugambi
Tangura ku giceamaheraIgiceAmahera y'itego y'ishingiro uburyo canke umukinyi akoresha. Iyongerekana ridondorwa mu bice kugira ngo rikore ku meza ayo ari yo yose.Soma vyose → kimwe, $5, ku gitukuraitegoGitukuraItego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ku nomero 18 zitukura. Mu gifaransa: rouge.Soma vyose →. Inyuma y'igihombo wongereko igice; inyuma y'itsinzi ukureko kimwe, ariko ntiwigere uja munsi ya kimwe. Iciyumviro, d’Alembert atashikirije ariko akagabirwa, ni uko amatsinzi n'ibihombo bingana, rero kuri buri gihombo kimwe n'itsinzi rimwe twunguka igice. Imibare ivuga ko gitukura gitsinda ku 48,65% vy'inzunguruka, rero ibihombo birusha amatsinzi nk'kimwe mu mirongo ine, kandi amahera y'itego aduga gahoro gahoro uko igihe gihita.
Ukuzunguruka 1–30
Gitukura cumi n'ine, ciraburaitegoCiraburaItego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ku nomero 18 zirabura. Mu gifaransa: noir.Soma vyose → cumi n'itanu, zeruuruzigaZeruAkazu kamwe k'icatsi kibisi kadapfukwa n'itego rya rimwe kuri rimwe, ry'umurwi canke ry'inkingi; ni yo soko y'inyungu ya kazino. Kandi bita: zeru imwe, 0.Soma vyose → imwe. Amahera y'itego yaduze gushika kuri $20 mu bihombo bitatu bikurikirana, asubira kuri $5 ku kuzunguruka 18, aduga gushika kuri $25 ku mpera y'iki gice. Ivyavuyemwo nyakuri +$20. Buri gihombo n'itsinzi vyazanye igice kimwe nk'uko vyavuzwe; ibihombo vyarengeje vyarabimize. Wumva ari nk'pompe itebuka ikora kenshi.
Ukuzunguruka 31–65
Igihe kibi. Gitukura cumi n'itatu ku makumyabiri n'ibiri bitari gitukura, harimwo ibihombo indwi bikurikirana. Uhereye kuri $5 ku kuzunguruka 41, amahera y'itego yaduze igice kimwe kimwe gushika kuri $80, kandi buri gihombo ca $75 casivye amatsinzi cumi n'atanu ya $5 yabanje. Ivyavuyemwo nyakuri −$485 kuri iki gice; igiteranyo −$465. Nta kintu gikomeye cabaye ku kuzunguruka na kumwe; ukuduga gahoro ni ko kwabikoze.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- hagati −$500
- p75 −$500
- p90 +$885
Ukuzunguruka 66–100
Gitukura makumyabiri ku cumi n'itanu bitari gitukura, amahera y'itego amanuka kuva kuri $80 aja kuri $55 mu ntambwe za $5. Itsinzi ryose ku mahera y'itego menshi ryagaruye amahera nyayo: itsinzi rya $75 inyuma y'igihombo ca $70 ni ibiri vyunguka +$5, ariko ivyo bibiri ni binini. Ivyavuyemwo nyakuri +$425 kuri iki gice; impera −$40.
Ibiharuro
Impuzandengo y'amahera y'itego ni nka $37, rero amahera yateze yose ni nka $3.670 mu gihe uwutega $5 angana yoteze $500. Igihombo citezweimibareIgihombo citezweAgaciro kitezwe gakubwe n'amahera yose yateze; ni amahera y'impuzandengo atakara mu gihe c'ugukina canke mu gihe runaka.Soma vyose → kuri $3.670 ni $99; ivyabaye −$40, munsi y'itandukaniro risanzweimibareItandukaniro risanzweUmuzi kare w'ihindagurika ry'ivyavuyemwo; intera isanzwe iri hagati y'ivyavuyemwo n'agaciro kitezwe.Soma vyose → rimwe. Ukuduga kw'amahera y'itego ni co kintu conyene ubu buryo bukora: amahera menshi ku meza, 2,70% imwe ikurwa kuri buri dolari, n'ivyavuyemwo bitatanye kuruta.
Ivyo iki gihe c'ugukina cerekana
D’Alembert ni ikosa ry'umutezi ryanditswe nk'itegeko ryo gutega: ryibaza ko amatsinzi n'ibihombo bizongana vuba bihagije kugira ngo amahera y'itego asubire hasi. Bingana mu gihe kirekire kubera ko bivangwa, si kubera ko bikosorwa, kandi amahera y'itego nta mvo afise yo gusubira ku gice kimwe. Ni uburyo butebuka butagira umukuku, kandi ukwo gutebuka ni co gituma abakinyi babwizera.
Ugushikana mu Gihe Kirekire: Itegeko ry'Ibitigiri Vyinshi muri Ruleti
Ibibazo
Ni gake. Amahera y'itego yongerekana igice kimwe ku gihombo, ntakubwa kabiri, rero bisaba urukurikirane rubi rurerure cane kugira ngo ushike ku rugero.
Ego, kandi urwo rugero ruhindura ubu buryo gutega amahera anganaingendo yo gutegaGutega amahera anganaGutega amahera angana kuri buri kuzunguruka. Ni urugero iyongerekana ryose rigereranywa na rwo.Soma vyose → kuri urwo rugero inyuma y'urukurikirane rubi. Urugero urwo ari rwo rwose ni rwiza; nta na rumwe ruhindura inyungu ya kazino.
Mu 1754 yavuze ko ‘pile’ iba ishoboka kuruta inyuma y'urukurikirane rwa ‘croix’. Abatezi bemeye ivyo bitiriye ubwo buryo izina ryiwe. Yari kugira isoni.
Agakuru ko gutwenga
Uburyo bworoshe kuruta ubundi. Buduga gahoro aho kugwa mu mukuku.
Aho Twakuye
- d’Alembert, J. “Croix ou pile.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.