Ihindagurika ry'Ivyavuyemwo
Ni kubera iki straight up n'itego ku nomero zitukura bifise igihombo citezweimibareIgihombo citezweAgaciro kitezwe gakubwe n'amahera yose yateze; ni amahera y'impuzandengo atakara mu gihe c'ugukina canke mu gihe runaka.Soma vyose → kingana vyumvikana nk'imikino itandukanye.
Ihindagurika ry'ivyavuyemwo ripima ukuntu ivyavuyemwo bikwiragira hafi y'agaciro kitezwe. Kuri buri gice cateze, ni nka 34 kuri straight up na nka 1 ku nomero zitukura.
Ingingo y'imibare y'itego rimwe
Ku tego riha W kuri 1 n'ugushobokaimibareUgushobokaUgushoboka kw'ivyavuyemwo, kuva kuri 0 gushika kuri 1 canke 0% gushika 100%. Inomero imwe: 1/37 = 2,70%.Soma vyose → p, ivyavuyemwo kuri buri giceamaheraIgiceAmahera y'itego y'ishingiro uburyo canke umukinyi akoresha. Iyongerekana ridondorwa mu bice kugira ngo rikore ku meza ayo ari yo yose.Soma vyose → ni +W n'ugushoboka p na −1 n'ugushoboka 1 − p. Agaciro kitezweimibareAgaciro kitezweIvyavuyemwo vy'impuzandengo kuri buri tego mu gihe kirekire. −1/37 c'amahera y'itego kuri buri tego risanzwe ry'i Buraya.Soma vyose → ni pW − (1 − p) = −1/37. Ihindagurika ry'ivyavuyemwoimibareIhindagurika ry'IvyavuyemwoIgipimo c'ukuntu ivyavuyemwo bikwiragira kure y'agaciro kitezwe. Kinini kuri straight up, gito ku matego ya rimwe kuri rimwe.Soma vyose → ni E[X²] − EV² = pW² + (1 − p) − (1/37)². Kuri straight upitegoStraight upInomero imwe gusa, iriha 35:1.Soma vyose →: (1/37)(1225) + 36/37 − 0,0007 ≈ 34,08. Ku nomero zitukuraitegoGitukuraItego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ku nomero 18 zitukura. Mu gifaransa: rouge.Soma vyose →: 18/37 + 19/37 − 0,0007 ≈ 0,999.
Ico bivuga ku gihe c'ugukina
Ihindagurika riteranirizwa hamwe mu nzunguruka zigengaimibareUkuzunguruka kwigengaUkuzunguruka kwose kugira ugushoboka kumwe n'ivyabaye kera vyose. Ni co gishingiro c'ibiharuro vyose vyo kuri uru rubuga.Soma vyose →, ku buryo mu nzunguruka N ku mahera y'itego adahinduka, ihindagurika ry'igiteranyo ari N × (amahera y'itego)² × σ², kandi itandukaniro risanzweimibareItandukaniro risanzweUmuzi kare w'ihindagurika ry'ivyavuyemwo; intera isanzwe iri hagati y'ivyavuyemwo n'agaciro kitezwe.Soma vyose → ni σ × amahera y'itego × √N. Inzunguruka 100 kuri $10: itandukaniro risanzwe ni nka $584 kuri straight up na $100 ku nomero zitukura, hafi y'ivyitezwe nyene vya −$27. Umukinyi umwe abona ivyavuyemwo bihindagurika amajana; uwundi abona ukwigira imbere buhorobuhoro. Bompi bariha igiciro kimwe.
Ihindagurika n'uburyo bwo gutega
Iyongerekanaingendo yo gutegaIyongerekanaItegeko ryose rihindura amahera y'itego hisunzwe ivyavuyemwo vyabanje. Iyongerekana rihakana riyongereza inyuma y'ibihombo, iryemeza inyuma y'itsinzi.Soma vyose → ntirihindura EV kuri buri gice cateze, ariko rihindura amahera yateze n'ishusho y'ikwiragira ry'ivyavuyemwo. Martingaleingendo yo gutegaMartingaleIyongerekana rikuba kabiri itego inyuma y'igihombo cose. Raba igice c'Ingendo zo gutega umenye ivyo bukora n'ivyo budakora.Soma vyose → igabanya ihindagurika ry'ibihe vyinshi vyo gukina (intsinzi nyinshi ntoyi) ikongerako umurizo munini (igihombo kinini kiba gake); ihindagurika ryose mu bihe vyose vyo gukina riruta irya gutega amahera anganaingendo yo gutegaGutega amahera anganaGutega amahera angana kuri buri kuzunguruka. Ni urugero iyongerekana ryose rigereranywa na rwo.Soma vyose → kubera uwo murizo. Paroliingendo yo gutegaParoliIyongerekana ryemeza: kuba kabiri inyuma y'itsinzi, gusubira ku ntango inyuma y'igihombo canke inyuma y'itsinzi zitatu zikurikirana. Kandi bita: Martingale ihindukiye.Soma vyose → ikora ibihushanye. Guhitamwo uburyo ni uguhitamwo ishusho y'ihindagurika; impuzandengo ntiri mu vyo uhitamwo.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- hagati −$500
- p75 +$40
- p90 +$1.120
Ingendo yo Gutega Amahera Angana muri RuletiIngendo ya Paroli muri Ruleti (Martingale Ihindukiranye)
Ni kubera iki bihambaye ku mukinyi
Ihindagurika ni ryo rituma ibihe bigufi vyo gukina bitamenyekana imbere n'ibirebire bikamenyekana. Hamwe na σ = $100 na EV = −$27 mu nzunguruka 100, inyungu ya kazino ni kimwe ca kane c'akajagari, kandi igihe c'ugukina gitsinze ni ikintu gisanzwe. Mu nzunguruka 10.000, EV ni −$2.700 na σ ni $1.000; ubu inyungu ya kazino iraruta nk'incuro zitatu akajagari, kandi urukurikirane rutsinze ni ikintu c'ama-sigma atatu. Ihindagurika ni umugenzi w'umukinyi mu gihe gito, n'uwa kazino mu gihe kirekire.
Ihindagurika ry'amatego ateranijwe
Ku matego menshi ateze ku kuzunguruka kumwe, ivyavuyemwo birafatanye (gufata kuri 17 ni no gufata ku nomero ziraburaitegoCiraburaItego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ku nomero 18 zirabura. Mu gifaransa: noir.Soma vyose → no ku murwiitegoUmurwi1–12, 13–24 canke 25–36, riha 2:1.Soma vyose → wa kabiri), ku buryo ihindagurika ritateranirizwa hamwe gusa. Igikoresho Umutunganya w'Amatego giharura ikwiragira nyaryo ry'ivyavuyemwo ku majetoniamaheraJetoniIkimenyetso gihagararira amahera adahinduka, gishirwa ku kibaho c'amatego kugira ngo utege. Kandi citwa: check.Soma vyose → ayo ari yo yose mu kurondora ivyavuyemwo vyose 37, ari bwo buryo bwonyene bubereye.
Ingingo y'imibare
Ibibazo
Oya. Buri tego rifise agaciro kitezwe kangana. Ihindagurika rinini risobanura ukunyiganyiga kunini hafi yako.
Amatego ya rimwe kuri rimweitegoItego rya rimwe kuri rimweGitukura/cirabura, igiharwe/igiharuro, binini/bito. Inomero 18, riha 1:1.Soma vyose →, afise σ ≈ 1 kuri buri gice. Riragabanuka kuruta hamwe na la partageitegekoLa partageItegeko ry'Ubufaransa: iyo zeru ije, igice c'amahera y'itego rya rimwe kuri rimwe kirasubizwa. Rigabanya inyungu ya kazino kuri ayo matego gushika kuri 1,35%.Soma vyose →, na yo ikaba itunganya impuzandengo.
Inyungu yitezwe ni imwe kuri buri dolari; ihindagurika rihindura gusa ukuntu inyungu ya kazino iza mu bipande, kandi kazino ifise abakinyi ibihumbi bituma iringaniza.
Twinezwe n'Imibare
Banza ubigerageze wewe nyene. Inyishu yose irapfutse; yugurure igihe witeguye.
Abakinyi babiri bateza $1 umwe wese kuri buri kuzunguruka mu kuzunguruka 100 ku ruziga rw'i Buraya, umwe yama kuri gitukuraitegoGitukuraItego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ku nomero 18 zitukura. Mu gifaransa: rouge.Soma vyose →, uwundi yama kuri 17. Ni nde afise ugushoboka kunini ko kuba imbere ku mpera?
Erekana inyishu
Inyishu Umukinyi wa 17: 50,9%, ugereranije na 35,5% kuri gitukura. Bompi bahomba $2,70 ku mpuzandengo.
Gitukura: umukinyi aba imbere n'amatsinzi 51 canke arenga muri 100, rimwe ryose ku gushobokaimibareUgushobokaUgushoboka kw'ivyavuyemwo, kuva kuri 0 gushika kuri 1 canke 0% gushika 100%. Inomero imwe: 1/37 = 2,70%.Soma vyose → kwa 18/37. Ikwiragira rya binomiale ritanga 35,5%, kandi amatsinzi 50 neza neza, ukunganya, irindi 7,7%.
Inomero 17: itsinzi ryose rigarura $36, ku buryo amatsinzi abiri (−$28) ntahagije, atatu (+$8) arahagije. Ugushoboka kw'amafata atatu canke arenga mu kuzunguruka 100 kuri 1/37 ni 50,9%.
Umukinyi wa straight up aba imbere kenshi, ariko ivyavuyemwo birahindagurika cane: ifata rimwe ryiyongereye canke rikuweho rihindura ivyavuyemwo $36, kandi abakinyi bari inyuma kenshi baba bari inyuma cane. Bollman (2024) atanga ibitigiri vy'Amerika, 26,5% na 49,2%.
Agakuru ko gutwenga
Igihombo citezwe kingana. Kimwe muri vyo kibikubwira n'ijwi rirenga.
Aho Twakuye
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.