Ugushoboka muri Ruleti
Ugushoboka kwose kuri ruleti ni igitigiri c'utuzu kigabanijwe na 37.
p = inomero zitezweko / 37. Inomero imwe: 2,70%. Cumi n'umunani: 48,65%. Ugushoboka kw'urukurikirane rwihariye ni ugukuba ugushoboka kwa buri kuzunguruka.
Ukuzunguruka kumwe
Buri kamwe mu tuzuibikoreshoAkazuKimwe mu bibanza 37 bifise inomero kuri rotor. Kandi bita: slot, cup.Soma vyose → 37 gafise ugushoboka kungana n'ak'utundi, ku buryo ugushoboka ko gutsinda kuri ruleti mu kuzunguruka kumwe ari ikibazo co guharura gusa. Itego ku nomero zine ritsinda incuro 4/37, nko 10,8%. Nta kindi kiri mu gushobokaimibareUgushobokaUgushoboka kw'ivyavuyemwo, kuva kuri 0 gushika kuri 1 canke 0% gushika 100%. Inomero imwe: 1/37 = 2,70%.Soma vyose → kw'ukuzunguruka kumwe, ari co gituma umukino wose ushobora gusesengurwa ku gakaratasi gato.
Inzunguruka nyinshi
Inzunguruka ntizifatanye, ku buryo ugushoboka kw'urukurikirane gukubwa. Inomero zitukuraitegoGitukuraItego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ku nomero 18 zitukura. Mu gifaransa: rouge.Soma vyose → zibiri zikurikiranye: (18/37)² = 23,7%. Itukura hanyuma zeruuruzigaZeruAkazu kamwe k'icatsi kibisi kadapfukwa n'itego rya rimwe kuri rimwe, ry'umurwi canke ry'inkingi; ni yo soko y'inyungu ya kazino. Kandi bita: zeru imwe, 0.Soma vyose →: (18/37)(1/37) = 1,3%. Cumi n'indwi incuro zibiri zikurikiranye: (1/37)² = 0,073%, nk'incuro imwe mu 1.369. Uko bikurikirana birahambaye ku rukurikirane rwihariye, ariko si ku guharura: “itukura hanyuma iraburaitegoCiraburaItego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ku nomero 18 zirabura. Mu gifaransa: noir.Soma vyose →” ni 25,0%, mugabo “imwe itukura n'imwe irabura mu nzunguruka zibiri, uko vyokurikirana kwose” ni 50,0%.
Nibura incuro imwe
Koresha igisigaye. Ugushoboka ko straight upitegoStraight upInomero imwe gusa, iriha 35:1.Soma vyose → idafata na rimwe mu nzunguruka 37 ni (36/37)³⁷ = 36,3%, ku buryo ugushoboka ko ifata nibura incuro imwe ari 63,7%, si “ukudakekwa” abakinyi benshi biteze ku ncuro 37 za 1 kuri 37. Iryo harura nyene rivuga ko inomero ifise ugushoboka kwa nka 1 kuri 3 ko itasohoka na rimwe mu nzunguruka 37, ari co gituma ikibaho c'ivyavuyemwo kiguma cerekana inomero nkeya “zikanye”.
Igihe citezwe co kurindira
Ku mpuzandengo, inomero ya straight up isohoka rimwe mu nzunguruka 37, ariko igihe co kurindira gihindagurika cane: igihe co kurindira co hagati ni nk'inzunguruka 25 (incuro nyinshi zingana na kimwe c'igice isohoka imbere y'aho) kandi kurindira kumwe muri makumyabiri kurenza inzunguruka 110. Ibihe vyo kurindira mu nzira ya geometric bifise umurizo muremure, kandi umukinyi “azi” ko inomero igeze igihe co gusohoka inyuma y'inzunguruka 60 aba avuga ikintu kiba incuro imwe mu zitanu.
Amakosa akunze kuba
Guteranya ugushoboka kw'ibintu bishobora kuba vyompi (itukura canke igiharwe si 36/37; ni 26/37, kubera ko inomero cumi ziri muri vyompi). Gukuba ku bintu biri mu kuzunguruka kumwe (itukura n'igiharwe mu kuzunguruka kumwe ni 10/37, si 18/37 × 18/37). Gufata inzunguruka zahise nk'igice c'urukurikirane uriko uratega ubu: inyuma y'inomero zitukura cumi, ugushoboka kw'iya cumi n'imwe ni 18/37, si (18/37)¹¹.
Igipimo c'ugushoboka kuri ruleti ni iki, kandi gitandukaniye he n'ugushoboka?
Amakazino avuga irihaamaheraIrihaIvyo itego ritsinze rizana, bivugwa nka “X kuri 1” hiyongereyeko amahera y'itego asubizwa.Soma vyose → mu buryo bw'igipimo. Inomero imwe itsinda n'ugushoboka kwa 1/37, ku buryo igipimo co gutsinda kuri ruleti ku nomero imwe ari 36 kuri 1 ihakana. Iriha rya 35 kuri 1 rero ribura igiceamaheraIgiceAmahera y'itego y'ishingiro uburyo canke umukinyi akoresha. Iyongerekana ridondorwa mu bice kugira ngo rikore ku meza ayo ari yo yose.Soma vyose → kimwe, kandi iyo ni yo nyungu ya kazinoimibareInyungu ya kazinoIgice c'amahera y'itego kazino igumana ku mpuzandengo: 2,70% muri ruleti y'i Buraya.Soma vyose → mu buryo bwayo bw'intango. Guhindura: igipimo gihakana = (1 − p)/p; ugushoboka = 1/(igipimo + 1).
Ingingo y'imibare
Ibibazo
(1/37)² = 1/1369 ≈ 0,073%.
36/37 = 97,3%. Zeru ni ibisigaye.
Zose uko ari 37 ni 1/37. Cumi n'indwi ni yo nomero itegwako cane, kandi ivyo ni ukuri ku bantu.
Twinezwe n'Imibare
Banza ubigerageze wewe nyene. Inyishu yose irapfutse; yugurure igihe witeguye.
Uteza kuri gitukuraitegoGitukuraItego rya rimwe kuri rimwe ku nomero 18 zitukura. Mu gifaransa: rouge.Soma vyose →, ukuzunguruka ku kundi. Ugushoboka ko itsinzi ryawe rya gatanu riza neza neza ku kuzunguruka kwa munani ni ukuhe? N'ugushoboka ko ugira amatsinzi atanu mu kuzunguruka umunani kwa mbere?
Erekana inyishu
Inyishu 12,9%, nka 1 muri 8, ku tsinzi rya gatanu ku kuzunguruka kwa munani. 33,4% ku matsinzi atanu gushika ico gihe.
Itsinzi rya gatanu ku kuzunguruka kwa munani risobanura ibintu bibiri: ukuzunguruka kwa munani gutsinda, kandi ukuzunguruka indwi kwa mbere kurimwo neza neza amatsinzi ane n'ibihombo bitatu, mu buryo ubwo ari bwo bwose. Hariho uburyo 35 bwo gushira amatsinzi ane mu kuzunguruka indwi.
Rero ugushoboka ni 35 × (18/37)⁵ × (19/37)³ = 35 × 0,02725 × 0,1354 = 12,9%.
Ku matsinzi atanu gushika ku kuzunguruka kwa munani, ongerako igice nk'ico ku tsinzi rya gatanu ku kuzunguruka kwa gatanu, kwa gatandatu no kwa karindwi: 2,7% + 7,0% + 10,8% + 12,9% = 33,4%. Abahinga mu vy'ibiharuro bavyita ikwiragira rya binomiale ihakana (negative binomial): incuro zingahe zo kugerageza igitigiri ntahinduka c'amatsinzi gisaba. Taylor (2021) akora ico kibazo nyene ku ruziga rw'Amerika, 12,2%.
Agakuru ko gutwenga
Harura utuzu. Gabanya na 37. Kuba ku rukurikirane. Ni ivyo gusa.
Aho Twakuye
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.